Recently, the market has been a bit strange - US stocks are falling, gold is falling, and crypto assets are also falling. It's not common for both safe-haven assets and risk assets to suffer together. What's the culprit behind this? The Fed has been arguing wildly about interest rate cuts.

Let's talk about a key figure: Fed Governor Waller recently spoke out in London, strongly supporting another rate cut in December. His reasoning is quite straightforward - the job market is weak, and the current interest rate level is choking the consumption ability of the middle and lower income groups. It sounds quite reasonable, but the problem is that the market is not buying it at all.

The data is more heartbreaking. Do you still remember back in October? Almost everyone thought that a rate cut in December was a certainty, with a probability close to 100%. Now? CME's "Fed Watch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to only 42.9%, with more than half of people believing that rates will remain unchanged at 57.1%. Looking further ahead, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by January next year is only 48.2%, and there is even a 35.6% chance of maintaining the status quo. This dramatic reversal in expectations, from certainty to suspense, has only taken a little over a month.

How intense is the market reaction? A comprehensive collapse. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively plummeted, with the Dow Jones falling over 1%, and risk assets and gold, a traditional safe haven, rarely declining simultaneously. The liquidity alarm has been sounded, and what traders are most worried about now is: if the Fed really does not lower interest rates, how much longer will this wave of selling continue?