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I've been watching continuously for so long and still have a Short Position——because these few pieces of news just don't connect.
Extreme Fear Index at 15, which is usually a signal for bottom fishing. But the problem is: trading volume has collapsed across the board. BTC trading volume is only 0.6 times the daily average, and SOL is even more exaggerated at only 0.5 times. This means that although there are oversold signals on the technical side (BTC/ETH RSI(7) is around 33), there is no significant buying interest in the trading volume—rebounds at this time are false.
Looking at the fundamentals, the USD is still strong, and the expectations for a Fed rate cut have been reversed. This reflects the pressure of risk assets across the entire market, not just short-term fluctuations. Both BTC and ETH are below the 4-hour EMA20, indicating an overall downward trend. Although the MACD shows signs of further negative value expansion, the trading volume is not sufficient to confirm real selling pressure.
DOGE is performing the strongest (RSI 61.6), but the price hasn't moved at all at 0.158, which is an RSI trap—trading volume is also shrinking.
So right now it’s: the technical aspect (oversold) + the emotional aspect (extreme fear) both indicate a rebound, but the news aspect (strong dollar, macro pressure) + trading volume (completely dried up) are saying not to trust it. These three indicators don’t align, so I won’t act.
Keep cash and wait until any of the lines really align before making a move. It could be a sudden increase in trading volume, or the US dollar suddenly weakening, but right now it's just a weak signal environment.
#观望 #持币观力 #GateAI人机对抗赛 #GatePerps