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If the Bear Market really comes, what is the price for $BTC to Auto-Invest and buy the dip???
Recently, with this round of significant declines, market sentiment is in a state of panic. To reduce this information mismatch, I plan to clarify the key logic during this period, so that everyone understands what is actually happening now.
MicroStrategy, as the world's second-largest single Bitcoin holding institution, has pushed its total holdings to about 649,000 BTC, which is close to half of Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. Their overall holding cost is around $76,000, and they are still in a clearly profitable state at the current price of around $90,000. This indicates that large funds are more confident in their long-term trend judgment than we might expect.
The AHR999 indicator for hoarding coins has now dropped to around 0.58, which is actually not far from the buy the dip range. In other words, from a macro valuation perspective, the decoupling of Bitcoin's hype and price is accelerating its recovery.
In just over a month, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has evaporated by $1.2 trillion. Some analyses still claim that as long as the weekly chart doesn't break 76,000, it's a bull market structure; this judgment is too naive. The real issue is that this round has formed a huge rounded top, and the divergence at the monthly level is already very obvious. Bitcoin is now not just an asset price; it reflects the pressure situation of global fiat currency liquidity. Gold, U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and various commodities are all trading sideways at high levels, and no market can indefinitely hold back pressure. Liquidity will eventually be released; it's just a matter of time.
Why has the pace become faster than before? Because supply is decreasing, and external macro variables are becoming more complex. The crash in the first quarter of 2025 erupted due to insufficient liquidity and the Trump factor, with many people only seeing "political noise" and ignoring the essential impact of liquidity. After the interest rate cut expectations and political news eased from August to December, it pushed the bull market back up again. However, entering September to December, liquidity issues began to be unavoidable, and it became the dominant factor.
Finally, the most concerning question for everyone: where is the bottom of the Bear Market? The main supports we can see now are at 85k, 75k, and 60k. More importantly, the shutdown price for miners falls between 60k and 65k—this is traditionally considered the Auto-Invest zone and also the most cost-effective buy the dip range. However, this position is unlikely to be seen in the short term; it is estimated that there will be an opportunity to see it in 2026.
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