#美联储会议纪要将公布 The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released—what impact will they have on the crypto market?

The market holds its breath as the upcoming Fed meeting minutes are set to reveal not just the direction of interest rates, but also serve as a verdict on the short-term fate of the cryptocurrency market.

With the Fed minutes about to be released, the entire crypto community is holding its breath. These minutes are not only about the direction of US monetary policy, but will also directly affect the short-term fate of the crypto market.

Internal divisions within the Fed have become the biggest uncertainty for the market. At the October meeting, the Fed saw its first double dissent since 2019: one member called for a larger 50 basis point rate cut, while another insisted on keeping rates unchanged.

Policy Fog: Fed Divisions Intensify Market Volatility

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has publicly supported another 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, citing persistent labor market weakness and concerns over pressure on low- and middle-income consumers.

Waller calls this a "risk management rate cut," believing that with limited official data, it is better to provide insurance in advance to prevent rapid job market deterioration.

However, hawkish voices have not faded. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, among other hawkish representatives, emphasize stubborn inflation and warn that cutting rates too soon could entrench inflation expectations.

This division makes the next decision highly uncertain—whether rates are held steady or cut again, there could be at least three dissenting votes.

Data Vacuum: Fed Faces Information Black Hole in Decision-Making

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said "let the data speak," but the US government's record-setting "shutdown" has left difficult-to-erase "aftereffects" on the economy.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will not release the October jobs report; the November report will be released on December 16. After this news, traders have all but abandoned expectations for a December rate cut.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM, noted that this delay "means the fog around the Fed's decision-making has only partially lifted. In this context, the Fed will not, and should not, cut rates."

The Fed will face an incomplete information dilemma in its December meeting decision.

Market Impact: Crypto Has Fallen Into a "Perfect Storm"

The cryptocurrency market experienced a "perfect storm" in November. Bitcoin plunged from a historic high of $126,000 to a low of $89,000, a 29% drop from its peak.

The shock swept the entire market: Ethereum dropped from $3,918 to $2,946, a monthly decline of 24.8%. The total crypto market cap shrank from $2.9 trillion at the end of October to $2.6 trillion, evaporating value equivalent to three Coinbases in just 19 days.

The panic indicator, the "Fear & Greed Index," fell to 16, entering the "extreme fear" zone. This panic sentiment spread rapidly through the crypto community, turning what could have been controllable selling pressure into a collective flight.

Transmission Mechanism: How Policy Expectations Impact Crypto Prices

The Fed's policy influences the crypto market through several channels:

· Liquidity expectations: Rate cuts typically drive capital toward high-risk, high-return assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, the market sees a 44.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and a 55.6% probability of rates staying unchanged.
· Institutional fund flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total of $2.6 billion withdrawn. Behind this institutional exit is the collapse of the investment thesis: the dual expectation of "rate cuts + looser regulation" has failed.
· Leverage liquidation: Current crypto market leverage remains at a historical high of 18%. When Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, long positions with over 20x leverage were liquidated en masse, with single-day liquidations reaching $380 million.

Outlook: Market Direction Hinges on the Fed's December Decision

The market is in transition from "despair selling" to "cautious observation," with the real turning point likely coming after the Fed's December meeting.

Morgan Stanley crypto strategist Sheena Shah said, "The market is transitioning from 'despair selling' to 'cautious observation,' with the real inflection point likely to come after the Fed's December meeting."

Bitunix analysts point out that if ETF net outflows stop and large players step in to buy in the $85,000–$90,000 range, BTC could rebound to $100,000; if chain liquidations in derivatives and more long-term holders accelerate selling, losing the $85,000–$88,000 range could quickly push the price down to the deep liquidity zone of $75,000–$77,000.

The Fed's December decision will send the market in two completely different directions. If the Fed sends a dovish signal, Bitcoin may resume its rally and rebound toward $100,000; conversely, if it maintains a hawkish stance, the market could face further downside risk, heading toward the $75,000–$77,000 range.

The crypto market has never watched the Fed's every move as closely as it does today. In this policy-sensitive period, volatility will remain the main theme.