A vote that can influence the flow of global funds is currently stuck within the Fed—surprisingly, the key to breaking the deadlock lies in the hands of a female director who is on trial and could lose her job at any moment.

**Voting is at a 6:6 deadlock**

Analyst Neil Irwin has uncovered the internal factions within the Fed:

There are 6 votes in favor of the rate cut - Powell, along with core members Williams and Jefferson, plus 3 board members appointed by Trump.

There were 4 votes of indecision - 4 heads of regional Fed are not very keen on cutting rates.

The remaining 2 swing votes are crucial: Biden's nominee Barr is almost certain to vote against, but what about Cook's stance? No one can say for sure.

**Where is the satire in this play?**

If Powell wants to push for a rate cut, he needs to secure the 7th vote. Ironically, the most likely candidate to give him this vote is Cook, who is currently being sued by the Trump administration in the Supreme Court, demanding his removal. This director, who was favored by the Democrats for his concern about employment data, has now become the key figure that affects the global economy.

**Calculations Behind Historic Decisions**

The Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing for January 21 to examine whether Trump can fire Cook. In other words, when Cook was voting in December, he had to weigh three things in his mind at the same time:

How to interpret economic data

Can the pressure from the president be withstood?

What mark will this vote leave in history?

On the surface, it is a technical decision, but in reality, it has long become a power game. When the independence of the central bank clashes with political struggles, this final interest rate cut drama in 2024 will surprisingly depend on how a "female director in crisis" plays her cards.

The impact of this matter on the cryptocurrency market may be more direct than any technical indicator—after all, the valve of liquidity is held in the hands of these few people.

(The content is based on publicly available information and does not constitute a policy forecast.)