The "number three figure" of the Fed, Williams, suddenly dove dovish, and the market went wild!

The president of the New York Fed just publicly stated that there may be another interest rate cut in December. As soon as he finished speaking, the market immediately reacted—U.S. stocks surged with a big bullish candlestick, Bitcoin rebounded from $80,000 to $85,000, and even NVIDIA saw a V-shaped reversal.

Williams' core viewpoint is very clear: "Current policy is still relatively tight, and there is still room for interest rate cuts in the near term." He places more importance on changes in the labor market, believing that inflation risk is no longer the main contradiction. This statement has pushed the expectation for a rate cut in December directly up to 71%.

However, the Fed is not united. Board member Mester supports a 25 basis point cut, while Logan from Dallas believes a rate cut in December is uncertain, and Collins from Boston simply suggests maintaining the current situation. The opinions vary significantly.

Looking at the data level again: in September, non-farm payrolls only increased by 119,000, but the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest point since October 2021. The weak employment data has given the doves more confidence.

Currently, the market is betting on one more rate cut within the year, expecting the interest rate to drop to the range of 3.50%-3.75% by the end of the year. The "third-in-command" statement has indeed turned the December rate cut into a real option, rather than just market speculation. The data and statements in the coming weeks will be more crucial, as this year-end drama has just begun.