BTC surged to 112,000, how to play in the second half of the year?

Bitcoin has strongly rebounded to 111.2k these past two days, with market sentiment shifting from pessimism to anticipation. Where is the core driving force?

Macro Aspect: The suspense of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is high. The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from previous highs to 63%, and this uncertainty has turned BTC into a hedge tool for investors. The strength of the dollar determines the rise and fall of Bitcoin; if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, a strong dollar will suppress BTC; conversely, the release of liquidity is rocket fuel.

On-chain: The market share of Bitcoin is maintained at 60%, indicating that mainstream funds are still buying BTC, with not much flowing into altcoins. This is a positive signal — it suggests that the market has not yet FOMOed to the top.

Cycle Side: The halving effect at the beginning of 2024 is still fermenting. Historical data shows that 12-18 months after the halving is a bullish period, and we are currently right in this window. With supply scarcity and institutional funds entering, there may still be opportunities in the second half of the year.

Emotional Contrast: Prices are rising, but market sentiment remains in the “Fear Zone”, which is a rare bottom divergence. This usually means that the upward potential has not yet been fully released.

How to operate? Three options to choose from:

• Conservative Party: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), regularly buying a fixed amount to hedge against volatility.
• Radical Party: Focused on the resistance level of 111.2k, chase on a breakout, stop loss if it falls below the 200-day moving average.
• Professional Party: Control BTC position at 5-15%, reduce position to lock in profits when the increase is large, and increase position during pullbacks.

The key is to keep an eye on the Fed's movements and not to listen to second-hand information. The Fed's policy direction determines the trend of the dollar, and the dollar determines the ceiling for BTC.