#美联储重启降息步伐 That batch of outdated September data from last night—just take a look, it really doesn't offer much practical guidance.



But there are two things to watch closely: the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has surged to 89%, which is quite significant. The other is that Russia and Ukraine have started talks. Although no one knows how it will turn out yet, any easing in the geopolitical situation is generally good for risk assets. Anything else? There's really nothing much to say.

In terms of trading, the approach is simple until the 10th—buy on pullbacks and build long positions. If you want to short, that's fine too—catch the pullback swings, but don't hold on stubbornly. If key support is broken, you have to take the loss.

The batch of swing longs I entered the day before yesterday are still open. Take-profit and stop-loss are both set: $BTC is watching the 90,200 line, $ETH is eyeing 3,020. Once you've set your strategy, don't mess with it. The worst thing is losing your nerve midway and getting shaken out, only to watch the market take off while you’re left frustrated. Stay the course, don’t panic.
BTC2.06%
ETH2.8%
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MetaMaximalistvip
· 12-07 03:21
tbh the fed pivot narrative is getting oversold by everyone rn... but yeah that 89% december probability does shift the network effects calculus significantly. geopolitical derisking for risk assets, sure, but the real infrastructure play here is watching how this cascades through adoption curves
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CountdownToBrokevip
· 12-06 22:52
An 89% probability of a rate cut is real—definitely a lifeline for the bulls.
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LiquidationWatchervip
· 12-04 11:10
An 89% probability makes it sound like a sure thing, but I have my doubts. Don't be too optimistic, man.
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BoredStakervip
· 12-04 09:20
89% probability, this move is really interesting, feels like it’s about to take off. --- The September data was really watered down, better to keep an eye on this 89% in December. --- Geopolitical easing is a huge positive, long positions can profit from this move. --- If it breaks support, you have to get out—don’t insist on holding, too many people don’t get this. --- $BTC aiming for 90200, $ETH watching 3020, that’s our plan for this round. --- Maintaining perspective is really important; losing your cool halfway is the biggest enemy. --- Buying on pullbacks is the right strategy for long positions, it just tests your patience. --- This 89% figure is pretty strong, feels like a December rate cut is nailed down. --- Whenever there’s Russia-Ukraine negotiation, risk assets rally, that logic is crystal clear. --- Mindset is the most important thing, too many people get wiped out by being shaken out at this stage.
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ZKProofEnthusiastvip
· 12-04 09:19
An 89% probability of a rate cut—this is indeed quite intense. However, I still want to wait and see if it can actually be implemented in December before saying anything.
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0xLostKeyvip
· 12-04 09:12
An 89% probability is pretty intense. The Fed is really getting serious this time, and there’s no doubt BTC will surge to 90200.
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ApyWhisperervip
· 12-04 09:07
An 89% chance of a rate cut—this is going to blow up, I've been waiting for this moment for so long. BTC surges to 90200, ETH breaks 3020, I'm holding on too, just afraid of getting shaken out. The easing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations is indeed a positive sign, risk assets are about to take off. Before the 10th, buy the dips and go long, the strategy this time is very clear. Mindset is key, don't get scared off by a pullback, keep your perspective.
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rekt_but_vibingvip
· 12-04 09:02
An 89% probability is really appealing, but geopolitical easing is even better. The only worry is if they end up backing out again.
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