Many people emphasize Bitcoin's four-year cycle, but have you ever wondered how fragile this theory actually is?

Looking back at historical records makes it clear. The so-called "four-year bull and bear cycle" has only occurred three times in history. Three times. Using such a limited sample to derive an accurate market formula is fundamentally flawed.

So, what cycle can truly guide us?

There are actually longer and more reliable reference frameworks. Take real estate, for example, as a globally important asset class, it exhibits a cycle of about 18 years. If we apply this framework to project the next peak in global asset sentiment, the time window points to around 2026.

Another tool that many overlook is the Bennet cycle. This economic rhythm model has been used for over 200 years and has accurately captured turning points in commodities, stocks, and various assets multiple times. Interestingly, it also signals a clear cyclical peak around 2026.

This becomes quite intriguing.

The movement of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum is driven by market rhythm in the short term, but in the long term, it is determined by structural cycles that define their highs and endpoints. When different long-term models, based on their own logic, all point to the same time window, it’s usually not coincidence—that’s called structural resonance. The market is telling you something.