2025 Remaining Period Gold Price Trend: Expert Predictions and Market Analysis

Gold Prices Up Over 40% Compared to Last Year

Looking at the gold market outlook for 2025 at a glance, the trend is ‘continued upward movement.’ As of July, domestic gold prices are at 635,000 won per gram, a 43% increase from 443,000 won during the same period last year. International gold prices are also at $3,337 per ounce, up 27% from the beginning of this year and 39% from the same period last year.

What stands out is the steady upward trend observed until May. This indicates a structural increase rather than short-term volatility. However, since May, the pace of increase has somewhat slowed. Nonetheless, it has not yet transitioned into a full-fledged downward trend.

Why Are Gold Prices Continuing to Rise? 4 Key Reasons

1. Weakening US dollar and de-dollarization trend

There is an accelerating movement worldwide to reduce dependence on the dollar. China is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, and India is expanding the use of the rupee. Countries under US sanctions are also increasing gold reserves instead of holding dollars. This trend naturally boosts gold demand.

2. Escalating geopolitical instability

Major conflicts such as the US-China trade dispute, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas conflict are overlapping. Gold is the first safe asset sought during economic crises, and demand increases with greater uncertainty.

3. Signs of economic weakness in developed countries

Simultaneous signals include inflation pressures in the US, slowing growth in Europe, and concerns over a global recession. In such times, investors instinctively turn to safe assets like gold.

4. Central banks lowering interest rates

Following the Federal Reserve’s 50bp rate cut in September last year, gold prices surged. When interest rates fall, yields on deposits and bonds decrease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Additionally, rate cuts are perceived as signals of economic weakness, increasing the preference for safe assets.

How High Will Gold Prices Go by the End of 2025?

Optimistic forecast: $3,675 per ounce

JP Morgan’s July report projects a gold price target of $3,675 per ounce for 2025. Considering current prices have already exceeded $3,300 and there are five months remaining in the year, this outlook is quite feasible. The initial targets of $3,000 per ounce set by Goldman Sachs and Citi Group have already been surpassed.

Moderate forecast: $2,795 per ounce

The consensus among banks and refining companies, as compiled by the Financial Times at the beginning of the year, was $2,795 per ounce. However, since current market prices have already significantly exceeded this figure, a reassessment is necessary.

Conservative forecast: $2,500 per ounce

Barclays and Macquarie forecast that gold could fall to $2,500 per ounce by the end of this year. This is 25% lower than current levels, but given the current trend, this seems unlikely to materialize.

Investment Strategy for Gold for the Remaining Period in 2025

Most financial experts agree that the ‘upward trend is likely to continue.’ However, some analysts mention the possibility of a correction in the second half of the year, so risk management is essential when investing.

To start investing in gold, first choose a platform that offers transparent fee structures and low spreads. Additionally, leveraging can improve capital efficiency, but it also comes with the risk of increased volatility, which should not be overlooked.