2025-12-24 17:24:19

Regarding next year's market trend, the general consensus is that 2026 will repeat the patterns of 2018 and 2022— a rebound from February to April, followed by a significant surge in altcoins, then a reversal downward in May, declining throughout the year until hitting bottom in the fourth quarter, and then starting a new upward cycle.

Some people think I am too optimistic. But I want to say that we should view the market trends with a dialectical perspective.

Many small investors believe: since history always repeats itself, next year's path should be the same as before. The problem is, will it really be exactly the same? This assumption itself is worth questioning. The trends in 2025 are noticeably different from those in 2017 and 2021— in terms of timing, magnitude, and rhythm. Although each cycle has its patterns, it’s also very difficult to replicate them completely.

The market is evolving, participants are increasing, and the macro environment is changing. Rather than obsessing over historical repetition, it’s more rational to observe what factors might break the norm in the present.

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OnchainUndercover

· 3h ago

Historical pattern trading has been very popular, but will 2026 really stay the same? I think this time is different, too many variables. --- It's the same old replay theory, always saying that and ending up getting slapped in the face. Wake up, everyone. --- Agreed, both the quality and quantity of market participants have changed. Still trying to apply the same rhythm from ten years ago? --- Instead of obsessing over historical patterns every day, it's better to look at on-chain data and institutional movements—that's more reliable. --- Well said, the environment has changed, so the gameplay must also change. Clinging to old routines will only lead to being harvested. --- That's a classic gambler's fallacy—always thinking history will repeat itself, but ending up failing every time. --- The wave of altcoin hype has been played out long ago. Expecting them to make a comeback next year? That's a bit naive. --- The key is that macro factors are fundamentally different—Federal Reserve policies, regulations in various countries—how could it possibly repeat? --- Honestly, if someone truly believes in copying this routine, they'll regret it by the end of the year. --- Yeah, it all depends on the real data at hand, not wandering in a dream while looking at historical charts.

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ser_ngmi

· 3h ago

History never repeats exactly, those who realize this have already cashed out at high levels. --- That's right, market participants have doubled, can the rules stay the same? Copying historical rhythms is just coming to get money. --- Instead of stubbornly sticking to the pattern, it's better to see who made a killing this year and how to follow the trend next year. That’s more practical. --- There are too many variables in 2025, still trying to follow a fixed pattern? Wake up, buddy. --- I completely agree, every time someone says history repeats itself and they can get rich, what’s the result? They end up getting liquidated just the same.

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MoonWaterDroplets

· 3h ago

Copying historical patterns? Wake up, the market has already changed. --- Still looking at the charts from 2018 and 2022? That's interesting. --- The key is who can identify variables in advance; everyone else is just a armchair strategist after the fact. --- With more participants and a larger market, can it really be copied exactly? Overthinking it. --- It's correct to view things dialectically, but someone says that every round, and in the end, they get proven wrong. --- Environmental changes are correctly pointed out, but ordinary retail investors should still follow the rhythm. --- By 2025, differences will be apparent. If you're still talking about historical cycles, you're getting it wrong. --- Breaking conventions? I just want to know when I can make a profit. --- Enough, as I always say, following big funds is more reliable than trying to find patterns.

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TooScaredToSell

· 3h ago

Repetition of history is tired, the market has long changed its appearance --- Basically, it's just betting on the past and not wanting to admit that things are different now --- I want to see who can accurately predict the direction in May; anyway, I'm giving up --- The more participants there are, the greater the uncertainty. Still want to completely copy? Dream on --- Instead of obsessing over patterns, better to see what tricks macro is up to --- 2025 is already finding its own rhythm, and some still cling to old routines, which is a bit ridiculous --- I agree, every time they say history will repeat, but they all get proven wrong, can't learn --- The market is evolving, shouldn't our thinking upgrade along with it? --- Wow, just waiting for May to see who was right

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