Precious metals outperform the energy sector, US stock futures diverge further

Stock Market Futures Diverge at Opening, Tech Stocks Show Mixed Attitudes

On November 13th, before the US market opens, the three major stock index futures showed a divergence pattern. As of 05:04 Eastern Time, Dow futures edged up by 0.10%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.12% and 0.18%, respectively. Tech heavyweight stocks performed tepidly, with Nvidia down 0.76% and Tesla retreating 0.60%, but Cisco surged 6.88% in pre-market trading due to better-than-expected earnings, becoming one of the few bright spots.

Government Reopens, Precious Metals Rise, Gold Hits 5-Day Winning Streak

The US government shutdown crisis has come to an end as President Trump signed a bill to end the longest deadlock in US history. With economic data releases imminent, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. Driven by this expectation, gold prices performed remarkably, marking the fifth consecutive day of gains. At press time, gold was up 0.87%, trading at $4,232 per ounce.

Energy Sector Under Pressure, Oil Prices Continue to Decline

Contrary to precious metals, oil prices remain in a sustained downtrend. OPEC’s latest monthly report indicated that US shale oil production has surged, and OPEC has increased supply, shifting the global oil market from a shortage to a surplus in the third quarter. Amid expectations of oversupply, crude oil prices fell sharply by 4% yesterday and continued to decline today. WTI crude dropped 0.31% to $58.29 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.38% to $62.43 per barrel. The weakness in the energy sector contrasts sharply with the rise in precious metals.

Forex Market Fluctuates, Yen Faces Intervention Threshold

The foreign exchange market also showed clear divergence. The USD/JPY exchange rate briefly broke through the 155 level, reaching a nine-month high, before retreating to 154.52. Nomura Securities warned that if the exchange rate stabilizes above the 155 mark, the likelihood of Japanese authorities initiating verbal intervention will increase significantly, along with the risk of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December.

In contrast, the Australian dollar rebounded due to strong employment data. Australia’s October unemployment rate declined, and new jobs exceeded expectations, keeping the labor market tight and causing market bets on rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia to be scaled back. Capital Economics analysts believe the RBA may continue to keep rates steady. At press time, the AUD/USD rose 0.53% to 0.6572.

Summary

This market divergence highlights multiple forces at play: policy-driven factors boosting gold and interest rate-sensitive assets, while the energy sector remains under pressure due to fundamental oversupply. The forex market reflects real-time changes in central bank policy expectations across different countries. Investors should closely monitor signals from the Federal Reserve, oil prices, and currency fluctuations for further developments.