Can international gold prices still rise in 2025? Market insights and investment strategies explained

Recently, international gold prices have experienced a meteoric surge, breaking through the $4,300 level in October and approaching a new all-time high near $4,400 per ounce. Although there was a correction afterward, market optimism about gold prices remains undiminished. Many investors are asking: Will gold prices continue to rise? Is it too late to enter now?

To answer these questions, we first need to understand the fundamental logic driving this rally.

Why Are International Gold Prices Soaring? Three Core Drivers

First factor: Increasing US policy uncertainty

Starting in 2025, a series of tariff policies have been introduced intensively, and concerns about the economic outlook have risen significantly. Whenever policy uncertainty increases, funds tend to flow into safe-haven assets. Historical experience (such as the 2018 US-China trade war) shows that during periods of policy chaos, gold typically experiences a short-term surge of 5-10%. This time is no different—uncertainty is pushing up the risk premium for gold.

Second factor: Expectations of Fed rate cuts

Expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates lead to a weaker US dollar, and since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar usually means higher gold prices. More importantly, rate cuts will lower real interest rates (real interest rate = nominal rate - inflation rate), and gold has a negative correlation with real interest rates—the lower the rates, the more attractive gold becomes.

According to CME interest rate futures, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points again in December is as high as 84.7%. As long as this expectation persists, it will continue to support international gold prices.

Third factor: Continued central bank accumulation

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months, central banks have accumulated about 634 tons of gold. More notably, 76% of surveyed central banks believe they will increase their gold reserves over the next five years while reducing their dollar reserve ratio. This indicates that official sector demand for gold will be a long-term support.

Other Factors Amplifying the Surge

In addition to the three main drivers, international gold prices are also supported by:

Global debt expansion limiting policy space—IMF data shows global debt has reached $307 trillion. High debt levels push central banks toward easing policies, which depress real interest rates and indirectly boost gold prices.

Declining confidence in the US dollar—When the dollar weakens or market confidence wavers, gold, as a dollar-denominated asset, benefits and attracts capital inflows.

Persistent geopolitical risks—Uncertainties like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to elevate safe-haven demand for precious metals, often causing short-term volatility.

Short-term market sentiment and momentum—Media hype and social media sentiment can lead to herd behavior, with large amounts of capital rushing in regardless of cost, intensifying the surge.

How Do Institutions View the Future?

Despite recent corrections, mainstream institutions remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for international gold prices:

• JPMorgan considers this correction a “healthy adjustment” and has raised its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.
• Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
• Bank of America is more aggressive, raising its 2026 target to $5,000 and believing gold could hit $6,000 next year.

Jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry still quote pure gold jewelry prices above NT$1,100 per gram, reflecting market confidence.

According to Reuters, the gold price increase in 2024-2025 is approaching the highest in nearly 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. This data alone speaks volumes.

Is It Still a Good Time to Buy? Investment Strategies Vary

Now that we understand the logic behind the rise in international gold prices, you can formulate your own strategy. The rally is far from over, but risks and opportunities coexist.

If you’re a short-term trader: Volatility presents opportunities. Liquidity is ample, and short-term price directions are relatively easier to judge, especially during sharp surges or drops, where bullish or bearish momentum is clear. But always track US economic data releases via economic calendars and seize volatility around key data.

If you’re a beginner wanting to trade short-term: Start with small amounts to test the waters—never add infinitely. Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%. If your mindset collapses, you risk losing money without clarity.

If you want to buy physical gold for long-term holding: Be prepared for significant short-term fluctuations. Gold cycles are long; it may take over 10 years to realize value preservation and appreciation, with prices potentially doubling or halving along the way. Transaction costs for physical gold are relatively high (5%-20%), so think carefully before buying.

If you want to diversify your investment with gold: Absolutely feasible, but don’t put all your assets into it. Gold’s volatility is notable, so diversification is more prudent.

If you aim to maximize returns: You can hold long-term positions and leverage short-term price movements, especially around US data releases, where volatility is most pronounced. This requires experience and risk management skills.

Investment Reminders

Gold prices are quite volatile—annual fluctuations average 19.4%, comparable to stocks. Since international gold prices are denominated in foreign currencies, exchange rate fluctuations (e.g., USD/TWD) also impact final returns.

Overall, the factors supporting gold prices—policy uncertainty, rate cut expectations, central bank accumulation—are unlikely to disappear in the medium term. The long-term bullish logic remains intact. But in the short term, beware of volatility: avoid blindly chasing high prices or panic selling at lows.

Use economic calendars wisely, make rational judgments, and adopt a prudent attitude toward gold price fluctuations.