Mastering the 2024 US Inflation Cycle: CPI Release Schedule and Investment Strategies

Why Investors Must Watch the US CPI Release Schedule

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a barometer of the global financial markets. Every time the CPI release time approaches, asset prices fluctuate accordingly. This is no coincidence — CPI directly influences the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, and the Fed’s actions in turn impact the direction of major global assets.

In comparison, the Fed places more emphasis on the US PCE index, but PCE releases always lag behind. For this reason, market attention remains focused on the earlier CPI data. Knowing the CPI release schedule is equivalent to grasping the first signals of market sentiment.

Complete Schedule of 2024 CPI Release Dates

US CPI data is released on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, but the exact timing varies due to daylight saving time.

2024 US CPI Release Schedule (Taiwan Time):

Daylight saving time (April to October) releases occur at 20:30 Taiwan time, while standard time (November to March) shifts to 21:30. Investors should mark these CPI release times in advance to avoid missing key market movements.

The True Differences Among the Three Major Inflation Indicators

There are many inflation indicators circulating in the market, but the core ones are only two: CPI and PCE. Each has sub-indicators, and understanding these differences is crucial for investment decisions.

CPI vs Core CPI: Food and Energy as the Dividing Line

Standard CPI covers price changes for all goods and services, including volatile food and energy. Core CPI excludes these two, focusing on more stable consumer goods and services.

During periods of sharp energy price fluctuations, core CPI often better reflects the true inflationary pressure of the economy. However, for the market, total CPI has a greater impact because it directly shows the actual price pressures faced by consumers.

CPI vs PCE: Calculation Methods Determine Forecasting Ability

The biggest difference lies in the weighting methods. CPI uses a Laspeyres index, while PCE uses a chain-weighted index. This technical difference results in practical outcomes: PCE better captures substitution behavior when prices rise.

For example, when oil prices surge, consumers switch to other energy sources. PCE automatically reduces the weight of crude oil in the basket, creating a “smoothing” effect. This makes PCE more accurate in capturing real inflation and is why the Fed relies primarily on PCE for policy decisions.

Year-over-Year vs Month-over-Month: Stability vs Real-Time Sensitivity

Year-over-year (YoY) compares current data to the same period last year, eliminating seasonal factors and providing a more stable trend. Month-over-month (MoM) is more sensitive and reflects short-term fluctuations. Investors should monitor both, but for medium-term strategies, YoY figures are more meaningful.

Key Indicators Market Will Focus on in 2024

Investors should primarily watch two metrics: US CPI Year-over-Year and US PCE Year-over-Year.

The former is released earliest and often triggers the first wave of asset price adjustments. The latter, though lagging, carries more weight as it is the main reference for Fed policy. In practice, both indicators tend to move in the same direction with similar magnitude. Therefore, CPI release timing signals market actions; for the Fed, PCE is the basis for decision-making.

Breakdown of US CPI Composition

CPI is not a single figure but a weighted combination of various components. Understanding the proportion of each helps investors pinpoint inflationary pressures precisely.

Major Components and Their Approximate Shares:

• Housing (including rent): 30–40%
• Food and beverages: 13–15%
• Education and communication: 6–7%
• Medical care: 7–9%
• Energy: 6–8%
• Transportation services: 5–6%
• New vehicles: 3–5%
• Recreation and entertainment: 3–5%
• Used cars: 2–3%
• Clothing and apparel: 2–3%

Housing is the dominant component, with the highest share; food and beverages are next. These two major categories largely determine CPI trends, so analyzing rent and food prices should be prioritized when assessing inflation.

Core Drivers of US CPI in 2024

Historical experience shows that CPI fluctuations are often closely linked to economic policies and external shocks. The situation in 2024 will be similar, with particular focus on two main drivers.

Variable One: US Election Policy Uncertainty

The US presidential election concludes in November 2024. During the campaign, candidates tend to make exaggerated policy promises. Coupled with the current international environment, these promises often involve trade policy adjustments, infrastructure investments, and manufacturing resurgence.

If fully implemented, these policies could temporarily push prices higher. Additionally, the acceleration of de-globalization increases supply chain costs and raises import prices. Rising geopolitical conflicts also pose risks of disrupting logistics further. Combining these factors, CPI in 2024 is unlikely to decline smoothly.

Variable Two: Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

According to the latest probabilities from CME Group, the market most expects the Fed to cut rates by 6 basis points in 2024. This reflects a belief that inflation will gradually decline, but with limited magnitude.

If the Fed’s actual rate cuts are smaller than expected, CPI may remain high, putting pressure on asset prices. Conversely, if inflation drops faster, the Fed might accelerate rate cuts, which would be bullish for stocks. Each CPI release will test whether these expectations are validated.

Three-Decade Cycle Insights of US Inflation

Since the 1990s, US CPI has experienced four distinct waves of significant ups and downs, each associated with major economic events or policy shifts.

First cycle (July 1990 – March 1991): Savings and loan crisis and Gulf War pushed oil prices higher, leading to recession and declining CPI.

Second cycle (September 2000 – October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 shocks caused CPI to fall.

Third cycle (January 2008 – June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis triggered deep recession, with CPI dropping sharply.

Fourth cycle (March 2020 – present): Pandemic caused economic standstill, with CPI briefly plunging. Subsequently, massive Fed stimulus pushed CPI upward, reaching a 40-year high in June 2022. As global pandemic conditions eased and logistics recovered, CPI began a slow decline to the present.

This history clearly shows that global logistics efficiency directly impacts US inflation. The 2020 case was especially illustrative: pandemic-induced logistics breakdowns led to cost surges, ultimately transmitted to consumers.

The recent “Red Sea crisis” in late 2023 further confirms this pattern. Houthi attacks on merchant ships caused rerouting, and shipping rates on Eurasian routes doubled within weeks. While the impact on container freight rates was less severe than the Suez Canal “Ever Given” blockage in 2021, regional logistics disruptions and rising costs will eventually reflect in consumer prices. Investors should closely monitor logistics costs to prevent new inflation shocks.

Fundamental Outlook for US CPI in 2024

The US economy itself is the foundation for CPI trends. According to the latest IMF forecast, global economic growth in 2024 is expected at 3.1%, with the US at 2.1%, ranking second among major developed countries and remaining relatively resilient.

This growth rate makes a significant decline in inflation unlikely. If the economy maintains over 2% growth, demand support persists, and a full price correction becomes unlikely.

From a commodities perspective, crude oil and other major commodities saw volatile declines in the first half of 2023, but gains slowed in the second half. In the first half of 2024, due to base effects, YoY CPI growth is unlikely to accelerate further downward. Meanwhile, oil inventories are in a declining cycle, supporting oil prices. This suggests energy’s drag on CPI will weaken.

Expected Trend of US CPI in 2024

Based on the above analysis, we expect US CPI to bottom in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, and decline again in the second half.

This judgment is based on the following logic: low base effects and ongoing decline in oil inventories in Q1 make rapid CPI drops unlikely; in Q2, the US election campaign heats up, increasing policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks that could disrupt logistics and raise transportation costs; in the second half, election results become clearer, policy directions stabilize, and base effects favor a further decline in CPI.

Overall, US CPI in 2024 is expected to follow a “U-shaped” trajectory rather than a continuous downward trend. This presents pressure for US stocks, as persistent inflation limits the Fed’s room to cut rates.

Summary: Grasp CPI Release Timing to Navigate 2024 Inflation Cycle

The US CPI release schedule is a key monthly event for financial markets. Investors should focus on two core indicators — CPI Year-over-Year and PCE Year-over-Year — with the former reacting quickly and the latter holding more decision-making weight. Understanding CPI’s composition helps accurately identify inflation sources.

The key variables influencing CPI in 2024 are US election policy uncertainty and the Fed’s rate cut pace. Combining macroeconomic fundamentals and logistics cost trends, CPI is expected to follow a pattern of initial low, then high, then low again throughout the year. This outlook offers important insights for stocks, bonds, and commodities, and investors should closely monitor market reactions to each CPI release.