What will happen to the 9999 gold price in 2025? Market experts' opinions

Over the past two years, the price surge of 9999 gold has been astonishing. After breaking through $4,400 per ounce in October last year to hit a historic high, there was a pullback, but market enthusiasm has not diminished. Investors continue to focus: Is there still room for gold to rise? Is it too late to enter now?

To understand the current market, first clarify the core factors supporting the 9999 gold price.

Three Major Factors Driving Continuous Gold Uptrend

Hedge demand driven by tariff policies

In 2024-2025, the gold price increase approaches the highest level in nearly 30 years, surpassing 2007’s 31% and 2010’s 29%. The trigger for this surge stems from a series of policy changes. Increased policy uncertainty directly boosts market risk aversion, making gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, highly sought after. Historical data shows that during similar policy frictions (such as the 2018 trade war), the 9999 gold price typically experiences a short-term rise of 5-10%.

Federal Reserve rate cut expectations support

Expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates weaken the dollar’s attractiveness, and the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases accordingly, making gold more appealing. There is a clear negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates—when rates fall, gold prices tend to rise.

According to CME interest rate tools, there is an 84.7% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. This data serves as a reference for short-term trends of the 9999 gold price. Notably, after the September FOMC meeting, gold prices retreated, as the rate cut was fully priced in, and Powell’s “risk management” language did not imply ongoing rate cuts, leading to market caution about future policy directions.

Global central banks continue to increase holdings

According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter. In the first nine months of this year, total gold purchases reached about 634 tons, slightly below the same period last year but significantly higher than other historical periods. The June survey report shows that 76% of surveyed central banks expect to “moderately or significantly increase” their gold holdings over the next five years, with most expecting the dollar reserve ratio to decline.

Other Factors Supporting Gold Price Rise

Global debt pressure and easing policy expectations

As of this year, global debt totals $307 trillion. High debt levels limit countries’ flexibility in interest rate policies, leading to a tendency toward more accommodative monetary policy, which indirectly pushes down real interest rates and enhances the attractiveness of 9999 gold.

Decline in dollar confidence

When market confidence in the dollar weakens, gold priced in USD benefits and attracts more capital inflows.

Geopolitical risks

Ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tense Middle East situations, and other geopolitical factors increase demand for precious metals as safe havens, often causing short-term volatility.

Media hype and social sentiment

Continuous media coverage and social media interactions lead to large short-term capital inflows, intensifying the upward momentum. However, it’s important to note that such short-term factors can cause sharp fluctuations and do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend continuation.

How Institutions Forecast the 9999 Gold Price Outlook

Despite recent volatility, mainstream institutions remain optimistic about gold’s long-term trend.

JPMorgan’s commodities team considers this correction a “healthy pullback,” warning of short-term risks but more optimistic about the long-term prospects, raising their Q4 2026 target to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs maintains its previous outlook, reaffirming a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America remains optimistic about the precious metals market, previously raising their 2026 gold target to $5,000 per ounce, and recent strategists even suggest gold could break through $6,000 next year.

Domestic jewelry brands’ reference prices for pure gold jewelry remain above 1,100 RMB/gram, with no significant decline observed.

Different Investor Participation Strategies

For experienced short-term traders

Volatile markets are ideal for showcasing trading opportunities. Liquidity is ample, and price direction is relatively easier to judge, especially during sharp surges or drops, where bullish or bearish momentum becomes clear. However, this requires sufficient market experience and risk management skills.

Advice for novice investors

If you want to participate in short-term fluctuations, start with small amounts to test the waters—avoid blindly increasing positions. The average annual volatility of gold is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%, and its volatility is comparable to stocks. Managing your mindset is crucial—impatience often leads to chasing highs or cutting losses at lows in a vicious cycle.

For long-term holdings of physical gold, be psychologically prepared for significant fluctuations. Although the long-term trend is upward, intense ups and downs in the middle can be difficult for some to endure.

Balanced trading approach

On the basis of long-term holding, leverage short-term trading opportunities during price fluctuations, especially around economic data releases, which can bring additional gains. This requires some experience and risk management capabilities.

Regardless of the strategy, diversification remains the most prudent approach—avoid putting all your funds into a single asset. Transaction costs for physical gold typically range from 5% to 20%, which should be considered in your planning.

The current 9999 gold price trend has not yet concluded; both medium- and short-term opportunities exist. The key is to avoid blindly following the crowd, especially for novice investors, who are more prone to emotional decision-making during volatility. Rational analysis is the proper way to navigate the market.