EUR/USD: Forecast for the coming days and scenarios for 2024-2025

The euro-dollar remains the undisputed protagonist of the Forex market. With a daily volume exceeding 2.2 trillion dollars in spot operations ( according to BIS data ), this pair represents the confluence of the two largest economic powers: the European Union and the United States. Since its launch in 1999, EUR/USD has established itself as the most liquid trading instrument on the planet.

Technical forecast: What do the charts tell us?

Observing the current price structure, the euro-dollar maintains an upward triangulation where the main resistance is positioned at critical levels. Technical indicators send contradictory signals that deserve attention:

Moving averages (50, 100, 200 sessions): The asset shows erratic behavior, breaking below levels but without establishing a clear trend. The swings in recent weeks reflect market uncertainty.

RSI and DMI: The relative strength index shows contraction without reaching oversold levels, while the Average Directional Index indicates bearish pressure, although a crossover reversal is imminent.

Fibonacci projections: For the end of 2024, the extension suggests an upward target at 1.12921, assuming a favorable scenario for the European currency. Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast points to touching highs around 1.21461 before a correction that should not break below 1.15.

The decisive factor: Monetary policy in the coming days

Beyond patterns and lines on charts, there is a factor that will dominate the EUR/USD dynamics in the upcoming periods: the cycle of monetary easing both at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

After maintaining rates frozen (FED at 5.50% since July 2023 and BCE at 4.50% since September 2023 ), both entities are in a pause phase before lowering. Projections suggest that the FED will start cuts in December 2024, bringing rates to the 4.50%-4.75% range, while by December 2025, a range of 3.75%-4.00% is expected.

The ECB will follow this path with some lag: 4% in December 2024 and 3% in December 2025. This policy differential is historic: the FED usually sets the pace that the ECB later replicates, as already occurred during the 2008 financial crisis.

Implications for the coming days and the 2024-2025 trend

If the FED accelerates its rate cuts, the dollar would face initial pressure, which would theoretically favor the euro. However, there is a notable gap between American and European rates that complicates the scenario.

By 2025, a normalization of differentials is plausible, which could allow a rebound of the dollar at the expense of the euro. Monitoring inflation is critical, as it determines the timing and magnitude of monetary policy adjustments.

Historical evolution: Lessons from the past

Since 2008, EUR/USD has been in a broad downward channel. The Covid pandemic produced a boomerang effect: the US responded swiftly with massive liquidity injections ($2 trillion package under Trump ), propelling the pair from 1.0780 (March 25, 2020 ) to 1.2299 (December 31, 2020 ).

The ECB’s TLTRO programs began eroding that advantage. The turning point came in February 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine, worsening European geopolitics. After a reversal in September 2022, the pair faces strong resistance at 1.1255.

Factors shaping EUR/USD price

Favorable winds for USD

• Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction
• Increase in interest rates
• Repatriation of capital by US corporations
• Defensive flows during financial crises (safe haven dollar )
• US GDP growth

Headwinds against USD

• Local recessions in the US
• Gradual abandonment of the dollar by emerging economies (led by China )
• Expansion of the FED’s balance sheet (resulting inflation )
• Interest rate cuts
• Erosion of confidence in US economic stability

Strengths of EUR

• Rate hikes by the ECB
• Economic recovery of the Eurozone
• Reduction in overall unemployment
• Growth of combined GDP
• Contraction of monetary reserves

Weaknesses of EUR

• Massive liquidity injections
• Interest rate cuts
• Debt purchase programs (Grexit, post-Covid )
• Rising unemployment in weaker members
• Geopolitical shocks (energy shocks like Ukraine )

Methods to operate EUR/USD

There are three main paths for retail investors:

Investment funds: Less efficient option, as they simply replicate positions in monetary instruments without exploiting fluctuations.

Futures on EUR/USD: Forward contracts where profit depends on the exchange rate moving favorably at maturity.

CFD on EUR/USD: The most practical option thanks to leverage, allowing access to relevant positions with reduced capital. One Forex lot equals 100,000 units of the base currency, and since Forex movements are moderate, leverage is essential for intraday and short-term trading.

Risks and future volatility

Despite the forecasts, no economy is immune to black swans. Geopolitical shocks, regional financial crises, or unexpected policy changes can redefine scenarios.

EUR/USD will continue to play a leading role in Forex due to its unprecedented depth. This liquidity mitigates extreme volatility compared to minor crosses. However, calibrating positions according to personal risk appetite remains imperative.

Summary: Is it worth trading EUR/USD in the coming days?

The euro-dollar represents one of the most solid bets in Forex for 2024-2025. The relative low volatility combined with identifiable monetary policy cycles offers structured opportunities. Technical forecasts point to moderate bullish movements until the end of the year, with potential extension into 2025 before expected corrections.

The key is to closely monitor FED and ECB announcements, as these will determine the upcoming dynamics. Rate differentials will remain the main driver, replicating the historical pattern where Washington leads and Europe follows.

For traders seeking exposure to the world’s major currencies with competitive spreads and leverage options, this pair remains the cornerstone of any Forex strategy.