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Another unconventional market move. The Bank of Japan announced yesterday a rate hike to 0.75%, hitting a 30-year high. Logically, such tightening signals should depress crypto assets, but Bitcoin has been soaring all the way up, even approaching $88,000. This contrast is enough to confuse many people.
In fact, this is a typical "bad news is fully priced in" phenomenon. The long-standing suspense finally resolved, uncertainty dissipated, and with the US CPI data released last night providing additional support, the suppressed bullish momentum found an outlet. In the short term, this is a emotional release; but from a medium-term perspective, rate hikes are ultimately tightening the liquidity faucet, and this tightening spell will eventually take effect. It's like a breakup phone call—being moved can last only a few minutes, but the pain that follows is unavoidable.
Let's look at the technical side. The one-hour chart shows that the main downtrend has not fundamentally reversed. Currently, it looks like someone is propping themselves up on the ground—appearing to be getting up, but still weak. Several key psychological levels need close attention:
The resistance zone is between $88,000 and $89,990. To break through $89,990, stronger buying pressure is needed. Looking downward, $85,000 is the first line of defense, followed by $83,800. If these levels are broken, it could trigger panic selling.
The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross below the zero line, which is usually a bullish signal. However, this is like the enthusiasm on your first gym visit—looks impressive, but persistence is key. At this point, volume must be considered to confirm the signal. If the price rises without increasing volume, caution is needed—this could be a "fake-out," and a pullback might still occur. Overall, while the short-term rebound offers some hope, the true signs of a bottom are still insufficiently clear, and caution remains the best approach.