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Bitcoin tests support for three consecutive days; high leverage longs face liquidation risk
【Blockchain Rhythm】Bitcoin has been quite active these days. After rebounding from a low point to $90,500, it started to decline again, briefly touching $89,300, almost losing the support level near the 50-day moving average at $89,200. This is already the third consecutive day of adjustment, compared to just reaching close to $95,000 on Monday.
Analysts from crypto trading firms pointed out that the recent decline is mainly due to two reasons—significantly low trading volume and many traders taking profits at high levels. Although risk appetite briefly increased after the market opened at the beginning of the year, the market failed to break through the key resistance at $95,000. In the past two days, it has shown clear two-way volatility, and ETF funds have continued to flow out.
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are also dampening the market. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut at the January 28 Federal Reserve meeting is only 11.6%, down from 15.5% a week ago and 23.5% a month ago, indicating a weakening outlook.
More concerning is the situation on the derivatives side. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains around 0.09% positive, indicating that longs are still leveraging up, buying on dips with borrowed money. When these concentrated long positions cool off, even mild dips can trigger chain reactions of forced liquidations, bringing new selling pressure. The market leverage continues to rise, and this risk should be taken seriously.