Recently, after analyzing market data, I found some interesting things. In early 2026, the Federal Reserve's stance showed a clear shift. The President of the Minneapolis Fed publicly changed his tone, moving from a previously hawkish stance to saying that solving inflationary problems will take time. More importantly, he began to focus on the rising risk of unemployment. This signal is very clear—an interest rate cut cycle is now on the agenda.

Wall Street responded quickly to this information. The Dow hit a record high, the S&P also rose accordingly, and the entire US stock market is digesting the expectations of this liquidity release. However, this kind of rally built on increasing the money supply is somewhat superficial in nature. Based on the current pace, the enthusiasm for US stocks may not last very long.

What is truly worth paying attention to is the underlying logic. The Federal Reserve's policy adjustment reflects a core issue—that the US dollar needs to maintain its position in the global financial system through liquidity release. At this point, the performance of gold and silver becomes very telling. Recently, both have seen significant gains, with gold approaching historical highs and silver at a critical level. This is not just a surge of safe-haven funds but also indicates the global capital market's expectation of dollar depreciation.

When large amounts of capital seek an exit, opportunities in the crypto market emerge. In an environment of loose liquidity, risk assets often enter an upward cycle. For the market performance over the next six months, this policy shift is likely to become an important support point.