The recent movement of Ethereum has been quite interesting. Last night’s quick dip to 3180, and this morning’s resistance around 3310—these ups and downs have led many to shout "a rebound is coming." But a closer look at the chart reveals that the situation isn’t that simple.

Let’s talk about reality—those entering the market now to chase higher prices are definitely going to get trapped in the short term. Why? Because this isn’t a genuine bull market rebound; it’s a typical pressure test by the main players. If you check the 4-hour candlestick chart, you’ll see: the price is tightly stuck in the awkward 3250 range, with resistance at 3310 above and support at 3180 below—completely a "meat grinder."

What’s the background? The Federal Reserve is currently divided internally—hawks want to continue tightening, while doves are calling for rate cuts. The outlook for interest rates is very uncertain. This directly affects liquidity, and the crypto market is especially sensitive to liquidity changes—any move by the Fed can cause market fluctuations.

Where are the real opportunities? In employment data. If the data continues to strengthen, rate cuts will be delayed, and short-term pressure on ETH will persist. Conversely, if the data weakens, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, and a rebound could occur—but this doesn’t mean a direct surge; the main players will still be controlling the scene. These fluctuations will scare off some retail investors who can’t hold up, but they also leave opportunities for those who can stay calm. The key is not to get confused by short-term candlestick movements.