Analysis: Bitcoin trading prices are still approximately 21% above their realized prices, and no bottom signals have appeared yet.

Mars Finance news: According to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis weighted by each on-chain token’s last trade time) is narrowing, approaching the bottom levels of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet seen the typical capitulation-style selloff. At present, Bitcoin’s realized price is about $54,286, its spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The signal at the bottom of the 2022 bear market was the spot price dropping below the realized price—back then, when the spot was about 15% below the realized price, it coincided with the cycle low point. The current 21% premium means the average holder is still in profit; for Bitcoin to reach the realized price, it would need to fall another ~20% to $54,000. Worth noting is the speed at which the premium is compressing: down from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months, which is one of the fastest approaches to the realized price line aside from a market crash. Other on-chain signals also indicate the market has not completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative territory, suggesting that institutional demand has weakened. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has held in the $65,000 to $70,000 range for five weeks and March ETF inflows of more than $1 billion show that there are buyers, the market has not yet gone through the painful process that has historically marked the bottom.