FOMC Meeting and Macroeconomic Outlook
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in May kept interest rates unchanged, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariff policies as a challenge to its dual mandate, adopting a "wait and see" strategy. There was a significant net inflow into ETFs and a strong issuance of stablecoins, leading to a warming of on-market funds, providing short-term support for the market. BTC is oscillating at high levels, ETH is rebounding weakly, and altcoins are quickly recovering but carry the risk of pullbacks. It is recommended to maintain a defensive mindset at high levels, paying attention to BTC's defense level at $91,600, controlling positions, and selecting strong sectors.
I. Macroeconomic and Market Environment
The reduction of the balance sheet continues to slow down, and liquidity needs to pay attention to the debt ceiling and changes in reserves. The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated that the resilience of the economy supports patience, and the timing of rate cuts depends on tariff progress and data, with a reassessment at the June meeting. It is recommended to pay attention to the economic data after the tariff postponement expires in July, and a rate cut of 50-75 basis points within the year remains possible.
2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Market Structure of Mainstream Coins