Bitcoin Breaks Key Support: Signs of Rebound Emerging? In-Depth Market Analysis for May 20

Funds sentiment warms up, ETF net inflows for five consecutive weeks

From a capital perspective, Bitcoin did not show typical bear market characteristics. According to SoSoValue data, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF last week was 603 million US dollars, recording a positive inflow for five consecutive weeks, indicating that institutional funds are still increasing their positions. In particular, BlackRock’s ETF, accounts for nearly half, and is a key driving force for this round of capital promotion.

On-chain data shows that large addresses (whales) continue to build positions in the $102,000-$103,000 range, indicating their confidence in the medium-term trend. Although the total inflow is lower than the peak in mid-April, the trend has not fundamentally reversed.

Technical Analysis: Daily candlestick closed with bullish momentum, short-term testing for a rebound

From the perspective of the K-line structure, after three consecutive declines on May 19, the first solid bullish candle was formed, with the price stabilizing above $103,000, indicating significant buying interest in this area.

1. Moving Average: The price is oscillating below the 10-day moving average, and the short-term trend needs to break through the $105,000 resistance level to confirm a trend reversal.
2. Bollinger Bands: The lower band is converging downwards, the middle band is turning flat, indicating a decrease in volatility, and the market is about to choose a direction.
3. MACD: still in a bearish cross, but the histogram is shortening, indicating that the bearish momentum is weakening.

Long and short position analysis: Market sentiment becomes more cautious

According to CoinGlass data, the current BTC long/short ratio is close to 1:1, indicating a significant market divergence and an unclear short-term direction.

• Bulls dare not chase after the rise: some traders are worried that the rebound is a false move, so they choose to wait and see or enter the market with a light position.
• Bearish start to take profit: Some short positions have been closed near $103,000, providing some support.
• Volatility Index (BVOL): Still at relatively low levels, indicating a lack of consensus expectations in the market, with investors generally cautious.

On-chain data: Trading activity rebounds

Blockchain browser data shows:

• The number of active on-chain addresses has increased, with the number of new addresses in the past 24 hours returning to over 900,000, indicating a resurgence in retail activity.
• The average transfer amount has slightly increased, indicating that the volume of funds is gradually increasing, and the proportion of non-small transfers is increasing.
• Miner selling pressure temporarily eased: In the past three days, the outflow of BTC from mining pools has significantly decreased, alleviating market selling pressure.

These data collectively indicate that the market momentum is gradually recovering, providing a basis for short-term oscillation and upward movement.

Risk Warning and Strategy Suggestions

Although the market shows initial signs of stabilizing, a decisive reversal signal has not yet been seen. For novice investors, the following strategies can be considered:

• Waiting for structural confirmation: If the price breaks $105,500 and is accompanied by increasing trading volume, it is appropriate to follow up with a light position.
• Control leverage ratio: Avoid high leverage operation during the phase of intensified short-term fluctuations to prevent the risk of liquidation.
• Set stop loss point: If the price falls below $101,500 again, cut loss decisively to avoid deep losses.
• Pay attention to on-chain sentiment: Make good use of websites like CryptoQuant, Glassnode to obtain real-time on-chain indicators, assisting in judging the market stage.

Summary

On May 20th, Bitcoin saw a slight increase, breaking the continuous downtrend and injecting short-term confidence into the market. Although both long and short positions are still in a stalemate, the main funds and on-chain activities have shown signs of mild recovery. The short-term volatile market may continue, and beginners should focus on risk control and pace control, avoiding heavy positions before the trend is established. Continuously monitoring ETF fund flows, changes in key support and resistance levels, and on-chain signals are crucial to grasping market dynamics.