XRP: Why October Could Be a Decisive Month for Success or Failure

October could be a turning point for XRP. Cryptocurrency lawyer Bill Morgan and industry followers warn that two important developments are emerging: the SEC's final decision on multiple applications for spot XRP ETFs and Ripple's application for a national bank charter in the U.S., both expected by the end of the month. Investors are closely following as institutional accessibility and regulatory clarity converge, potentially determining whether XRP will break out or stagnate. Rumors and performance targets have fueled the debate: some analysts predict a price increase to $4 - $5 if the ETF is approved, while more ambitious models could reach double-digit territory. With prices hovering around $3, the coming weeks could set the stage for a breakout or confirm a consolidation phase. Market Regulations and Expectations The SEC has delayed its decision on several prominent XRP ETF applications submitted by companies such as Grayscale, 21Shares, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton, with the current deadline set between October 18 and October 25. Alongside this, Ripple's national bank license application is also pending, reportedly under review with similar time constraints. Clarity in regulations on both fronts could open the door for institutional capital; otherwise, XRP may continue to face downward pressure. As the growth momentum solidifies, market sentiment increasingly relies on whether the outcomes of October will bring benefits or disappoint bullish expectations. Price Trends and Technical Outlook XRP is currently trading near the $3 level, an important psychological threshold. The recent delays in ETF decisions have pulled the price down slightly, fluctuating around $2.90–$3.00, a range identified by technical analysts as key support. A strong breakout above the resistance level in the $3.15–$3.20 area could pave the way for a price surge to $3.50 or higher. On the contrary, a drop below $2.90 risks leading to a deeper correction. The on-chain metrics show that the supply of XRP on exchanges has decreased, indicating that holders are accumulating rather than selling, possibly preparing for the catalysts of October. Wider Psychology and Price Prediction Analyst sentiment leans towards a bullish trend: Peter Brandt forecasts a 60% increase to around $4.47, while Tony "The Bull" Severino sees an incredible potential surge of 333% in just a few weeks. Other models even extend further: in bullish scenarios with successful ETF approvals and licensing, some price forecasts suggest XRP could reach $9-10, or even up to $12.60, depending on the level of widespread adoption and financial integration. At this stage, October is not just an ordinary month; it is likely to be the catalyst for a multi-month bull run. Things Investors Should Follow in October Here are the factors that may determine whether October will be a breakthrough month for XRP or a stagnant month: SEC's ruling on the XRP ETF application — Institutional capital flows depend on the approval timeline. The national bank licensing decision for Ripple — The legality of the regulation will reshape the adoption dynamics. Price and volume reaction — Breaking above $3.20 or failing to hold $2.90 are key technical indicators. On-chain behavior and liquidity — Exchange flows provide early signs of accumulation or distribution. Momentum shifting to altcoins — As attention increases, early-stage projects may benefit from capital rotation. Conclusion: A Month Can Define a Cycle October is not just an ordinary calendar month for XRP. With decisions regarding ETF, the consideration of banking licenses, and the convergence of strategic dynamics, this token may regain its upward momentum or stabilize during a prolonged consolidation phase. Those who follow closely may see one of the following outcomes: If approved, XRP could quickly surpass the $4-5 level, and may even go higher. If the approval fails or is delayed, the cryptocurrency market may pause while market sentiment is adjusted.