Bitcoin is currently trading around 108,700 USD, almost flat for the day, but has still fallen more than 6% over the past month and about 5% over the last week. Although the price movements appear quite "cold" on the surface, on-chain data shows a different picture: the market may be gradually forming a bottom, paving the way for a strong bounce back.
SOPR of short-term investors: Weak hands have liquidated their positions
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether Bitcoin is being sold on-chain at a profit or a loss. For the group of (short-term holders) – who are often sensitive and react the quickest – this index acts as a "thermometer" of market sentiment.
On August 29, the short-term SOPR fell to 0.982, the lowest level in months. This means that the majority of short-term investors sold at a loss – a sign of capitulation (. In the past, periods of sharp SOPR declines have often coincided with weak hands exiting the market, opening opportunities for strong hands to accumulate. A striking example: on April 17, SOPR hit a low of 0.94 ) the lowest in a year (. At that time, BTC dropped to 84,800 USD before bouncing back 31.6% to 111,600 USD after SOPR returned above 1.
Currently, the SOPR has risen to 0.99, but still hovers around the multi-week low, suggesting that the "cleaning-up" process of short-term investors is still ongoing.
URPD shows important support - resistance areas
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution )URPD( indicator shows the amount of Bitcoin purchased at each price range, thereby identifying strong support and resistance levels.
Strong support: 107,000 USD: Cluster 286,255 BTC )1.44%(108,200 USD: Cluster 447,544 BTC )2.25%( – matches the SOPR bottom on 29/8
For this reason, the price of Bitcoin has repeatedly held around 108,000 USD, despite the selling pressure still being present.
Resistance above: 113,200 USD : 210.708 BTC )1,06%(114,400 USD : 220.562 BTC )1,11%(116,900 USD: Largest cluster – 2.88% of supply traded here → a strong barrier for the bulls.
This means: for a sustainable bounce back, Bitcoin needs to surpass the range of 116,900 – 117,400 USD.
Price milestones to watch
Bad scenario: If BTC falls below 107,300 USD, the downtrend will be reactivated, and the hypothesis that the "bottom has formed" will be denied. Positive scenario: 109,700 USD: The first sign of recovery strength 112,300 USD ) Fib 0.5( and 113,500 USD ) Fib 0.618(: Important breakout zone 113,500 USD: Resistance zone that has repeatedly rejected BTC – is the "narrative shift" point ).
If it surpasses 117,400 USD, Bitcoin may confirm the bounce back trend and enter a new growth phase.
Conclusion
The market is currently in a stalemate:
Weak hands are leaving (SOPR low)Strong hands are defending at the support clusters URPDPrice is hovering around the key zone $108,000
This creates conditions for a mid-term bottom scenario. However, the bulls only truly control the situation when breaking above 117,400 USD. Conversely, losing 107,300 USD will hand the advantage to the bears.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
BTC Price Analysis Reveals Market Bottom Signs, But $113,500 Remains a Key Resistance Level
Bitcoin is currently trading around 108,700 USD, almost flat for the day, but has still fallen more than 6% over the past month and about 5% over the last week. Although the price movements appear quite "cold" on the surface, on-chain data shows a different picture: the market may be gradually forming a bottom, paving the way for a strong bounce back. SOPR of short-term investors: Weak hands have liquidated their positions The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether Bitcoin is being sold on-chain at a profit or a loss. For the group of (short-term holders) – who are often sensitive and react the quickest – this index acts as a "thermometer" of market sentiment. On August 29, the short-term SOPR fell to 0.982, the lowest level in months. This means that the majority of short-term investors sold at a loss – a sign of capitulation (. In the past, periods of sharp SOPR declines have often coincided with weak hands exiting the market, opening opportunities for strong hands to accumulate. A striking example: on April 17, SOPR hit a low of 0.94 ) the lowest in a year (. At that time, BTC dropped to 84,800 USD before bouncing back 31.6% to 111,600 USD after SOPR returned above 1. Currently, the SOPR has risen to 0.99, but still hovers around the multi-week low, suggesting that the "cleaning-up" process of short-term investors is still ongoing. URPD shows important support - resistance areas The UTXO Realized Price Distribution )URPD( indicator shows the amount of Bitcoin purchased at each price range, thereby identifying strong support and resistance levels.
Strong support: 107,000 USD: Cluster 286,255 BTC )1.44%(108,200 USD: Cluster 447,544 BTC )2.25%( – matches the SOPR bottom on 29/8 For this reason, the price of Bitcoin has repeatedly held around 108,000 USD, despite the selling pressure still being present. Resistance above: 113,200 USD : 210.708 BTC )1,06%(114,400 USD : 220.562 BTC )1,11%(116,900 USD: Largest cluster – 2.88% of supply traded here → a strong barrier for the bulls. This means: for a sustainable bounce back, Bitcoin needs to surpass the range of 116,900 – 117,400 USD. Price milestones to watch Bad scenario: If BTC falls below 107,300 USD, the downtrend will be reactivated, and the hypothesis that the "bottom has formed" will be denied. Positive scenario: 109,700 USD: The first sign of recovery strength 112,300 USD ) Fib 0.5( and 113,500 USD ) Fib 0.618(: Important breakout zone 113,500 USD: Resistance zone that has repeatedly rejected BTC – is the "narrative shift" point ).
If it surpasses 117,400 USD, Bitcoin may confirm the bounce back trend and enter a new growth phase. Conclusion The market is currently in a stalemate: Weak hands are leaving (SOPR low)Strong hands are defending at the support clusters URPDPrice is hovering around the key zone $108,000 This creates conditions for a mid-term bottom scenario. However, the bulls only truly control the situation when breaking above 117,400 USD. Conversely, losing 107,300 USD will hand the advantage to the bears.