Real Vision CEO predicts that by 2030, the number of encryption users will reach 4 billion, and the industry's market capitalization may rise 25 times to 100 trillion US dollars.

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has released his latest forecast, predicting that the number of global cryptocurrency users will exceed 4 billion by 2030, equivalent to half of the world's population; the industry's total market capitalization will grow from the current $4 trillion to $100 trillion by 2034, a 25-fold increase. This optimistic expectation is based on the fact that the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies is twice that of the internet during the same period (annual growth rate of 137% vs 76% for the internet), as well as the hedging demand brought about by global currency devaluation. Pal emphasized that "adoption rates explain outperformance, and currency devaluation explains 90% of price fluctuations," resonating with bullish views from institutions like Citigroup and ARK Invest.

The adoption rate of encryption far exceeds that of the Internet, with a user base growth of 137% over nine years.

Raoul Pal points out that by comparing cryptocurrency wallets to early IP address growth data, the number of cryptocurrency users has grown at an astonishing annual rate of 137% over the past nine years, reaching 659 million users by the end of 2024. In contrast, the internet had only 187 million users at the end of 2000, with an annual growth rate of 76%. Pal predicts that if the current pace continues, the number of users will reach 4 billion by 2030, equivalent to 50% of the global population. This growth is driven by the adoption in emerging markets, institutional adoption (such as BlackRock's IBIT ETF inflow of $27.6 billion), and the improvement of payment infrastructure.

Trillion Market Capitalization Driving Factors: Currency Depreciation and Institutional Allocation

Pal believes that global currency depreciation is a core catalyst, with an annual "hidden inflation tax" of 8%, forcing investors to seek anti-depreciation assets. Crypto Assets, as scarce digital assets, directly benefit from the expansion of central banks' balance sheets (such as the liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve being 90% correlated with Bitcoin). At the same time, clearer regulations (such as the SEC abolishing SAB 121 and allowing 401 (k) to allocate Bitcoin) unlock $8.9 trillion in capital, raising the institutional allocation ratio to 67%. Both Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that the stablecoin market will exceed $3.7 trillion, becoming a significant holder of government bonds.

(Stablecoin market capitalization | Source: Goldman Sachs)

Technical Aspects and Ecological Evolution: From Speculation to Pragmatism

The market structure is shifting from Bitcoin dominance to a multi-ecosystem coexistence. Bitcoin's market capitalization share has decreased from 65% to 59%, with funds flowing towards Ethereum (lower transaction costs after the Dencun upgrade), Solana (daily trading volume of 20.9 billion USD), and other practical public chains. The Altcoin Season index has reached 68%, and practical tokens like Chainlink and Pendle are favored by capital. Pal suggests that investors focus on network adoption metrics (such as active addresses and transaction value) and prioritize allocations to top tokens (BTC, ETH, SOL).

Long-term Investment Strategy: DCA and Risk Hedging Allocation

Pal reminds to avoid the trap of "hundredfold returns" and emphasizes that 85% of Meme coins may go to zero. Its core strategies include:

1. Dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin: Use the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) method to reduce fluctuation risk;
2. Diversify top assets: Allocate 70% of personal positions to the top 10-20 tokens (e.g., SUI).
3. Avoid high leverage: Beware of "high return traps" such as staking rewards.

Historical data shows that although there is a seasonal decline in September (with Bitcoin averaging a drop of 2.55%-6%), ETF inflows and institutional asset allocation have mitigated this effect.

Controversies and Risks: Wallet Data Reliability and Regulatory Challenges

The community's predictions for Pal are divergent, with points of contention including:

• Wallet Multiplicity: A single user may have multiple wallets, which can overestimate the actual number of users;
• Real Activity: The number of real active users per month is only 30 million - 60 million, which is a significant gap from nominal data;
• Regulatory uncertainty: Global policy differences may slow down the adoption rate.

In addition, scalability challenges and token centralization (such as the top 50 accounts of XRP controlling 63.83% of the supply) remain potential risks to market health.

Conclusion

Raoul Pal's prediction illustrates the grand narrative of Crypto Assets moving from the periphery to sovereignty, with its core logic based on scarcity demand under currency depreciation and the expansion of network effects. Although facing seasonal adjustments and disputes over data authenticity in the short term, institutional inflows, regulatory breakthroughs, and the evolution of practical ecosystems provide long-term support. Investors need to balance optimistic expectations with risk control, avoiding high-leverage speculation, and participating in trends through dollar-cost averaging in leading assets. If Pal's prediction comes true, the Crypto market will consume 10% of global financial assets within a decade, restructuring the wealth distribution pattern.