The price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) has never been solely the result of internal factors such as Halving and ETF inflows. Recent analysis shows that global Central Bank liquidity is the hidden engine driving BTC into a new cycle of prosperity. When this factor is compounded with the pressure of U.S. debt, BTC may transition from a "cyclical speculative asset" to a strategic pillar of the global financial system.
Central Bank Liquidity: Bitcoin's Cyclical Leverage
(Source: Alphractal)
Research institution Alphractal has found that tracking changes in the balance sheets of global central banks can more accurately predict Bitcoin price movement than simply observing global M2 money supply.
Data shows that from 2023 to 2025, the total global Central Bank Liquidity will fluctuate between 28 trillion and 31 trillion USD, forming four expansion-contraction cycles.
Time lag: After each significant increase in liquidity, BTC price usually shows an upward response about two months later.
Logical chain: Liquidity injection → Capital flows to risk assets → BTC benefits from scarcity and high liquidity
Analyst Quinten pointed out that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is remarkably synchronized with the Central Bank liquidity cycle, suggesting that the next four years may usher in a new round of liquidity-driven bull market.
The growth rate of US debt exceeds liquidity expansion: potential crisis
Realvision's Head of Crypto Analysis Jamie Coutts warned that when the rate of debt growth outpaces the rate of liquidity expansion, the global financial system will become fragile.
Risk mechanism: Liquidity/Debt ratio drops to historical lows → Financial safety buffer eroded
Result: Financing pressure increases, risk assets are susceptible to the impact of tightening policies.
Coutts commented: "When the ratio is high, excess liquidity drives up inflation and asset prices; when the ratio is low, market vulnerability rises sharply."
Ray Dalio: The US dollar's status is precarious, Bitcoin is a hedge tool
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has long been focused on debt cycles and economic stability. He warns:
The US debt has reached dangerous levels, and without fundamental solutions, it could trigger an "economic heart attack" in the next three years.
If the US dollar depreciates due to debt burden, scarce assets such as Bitcoin will become a core allocation for currency hedging and investment portfolios.
Bitcoin's "Dual Attributes": Coexisting Risks and Protections
Integrating the perspectives of Alphractal, Coutts, and Dalio, Bitcoin is at the intersection of history and reality:
Liquidity-driven: During periods of liquidity expansion, BTC benefits in sync with assets such as stocks and gold.
Hedging Attributes: During periods of increased systemic risk and a weakening dollar, BTC becomes a strategic hedging tool due to its fixed supply and decentralized characteristics.
This "hybrid" attribute allows BTC to capture growth dividends during prosperous periods while providing value support during crises.
Conclusion
The next round of Bitcoin's boom cycle may not simply be triggered by Halving or ETF inflows, but rather driven by a combination of global Central Bank liquidity expansion and the weakness of the dollar as a set of macro forces. When the liquidity cycle intertwines with debt pressure, BTC is expected to gradually grow from a high-volatility speculative asset into a core pillar of the new global financial order.
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Global Central Bank Liquidity Becomes the Hidden Engine of the Bitcoin Bull Run! Experts: A New Prosperity Cycle May Have Already Started
The price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) has never been solely the result of internal factors such as Halving and ETF inflows. Recent analysis shows that global Central Bank liquidity is the hidden engine driving BTC into a new cycle of prosperity. When this factor is compounded with the pressure of U.S. debt, BTC may transition from a "cyclical speculative asset" to a strategic pillar of the global financial system.
Central Bank Liquidity: Bitcoin's Cyclical Leverage
(Source: Alphractal)
Research institution Alphractal has found that tracking changes in the balance sheets of global central banks can more accurately predict Bitcoin price movement than simply observing global M2 money supply.
Data shows that from 2023 to 2025, the total global Central Bank Liquidity will fluctuate between 28 trillion and 31 trillion USD, forming four expansion-contraction cycles.
Time lag: After each significant increase in liquidity, BTC price usually shows an upward response about two months later.
Logical chain: Liquidity injection → Capital flows to risk assets → BTC benefits from scarcity and high liquidity
Analyst Quinten pointed out that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is remarkably synchronized with the Central Bank liquidity cycle, suggesting that the next four years may usher in a new round of liquidity-driven bull market.
The growth rate of US debt exceeds liquidity expansion: potential crisis
Realvision's Head of Crypto Analysis Jamie Coutts warned that when the rate of debt growth outpaces the rate of liquidity expansion, the global financial system will become fragile.
Risk mechanism: Liquidity/Debt ratio drops to historical lows → Financial safety buffer eroded
Result: Financing pressure increases, risk assets are susceptible to the impact of tightening policies.
Coutts commented: "When the ratio is high, excess liquidity drives up inflation and asset prices; when the ratio is low, market vulnerability rises sharply."
Ray Dalio: The US dollar's status is precarious, Bitcoin is a hedge tool
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has long been focused on debt cycles and economic stability. He warns:
The US debt has reached dangerous levels, and without fundamental solutions, it could trigger an "economic heart attack" in the next three years.
If the US dollar depreciates due to debt burden, scarce assets such as Bitcoin will become a core allocation for currency hedging and investment portfolios.
Bitcoin's "Dual Attributes": Coexisting Risks and Protections
Integrating the perspectives of Alphractal, Coutts, and Dalio, Bitcoin is at the intersection of history and reality:
Liquidity-driven: During periods of liquidity expansion, BTC benefits in sync with assets such as stocks and gold.
Hedging Attributes: During periods of increased systemic risk and a weakening dollar, BTC becomes a strategic hedging tool due to its fixed supply and decentralized characteristics.
This "hybrid" attribute allows BTC to capture growth dividends during prosperous periods while providing value support during crises.
Conclusion
The next round of Bitcoin's boom cycle may not simply be triggered by Halving or ETF inflows, but rather driven by a combination of global Central Bank liquidity expansion and the weakness of the dollar as a set of macro forces. When the liquidity cycle intertwines with debt pressure, BTC is expected to gradually grow from a high-volatility speculative asset into a core pillar of the new global financial order.