US Government Shutdown Showdown: Odds Stack up as Congress Fumbles the Budget

The odds of a U.S. government shutdown by Oct. 1, 2025, are looking hefty as Congress keeps sparring along party lines, with no bipartisan deal in sight to push through the required spending bills or even a stopgap continuing resolution (CR). Polymarket bettors, never shy about calling it how they see it, are pegging the chances at 27% that the government grinds to a halt by the first of next month.

Polymarket, Kalshi Bettors Brace for Government Shutdown Drama

There’s a serious chance the U.S. government could slam into a shutdown if Congress doesn’t break its policy deadlock and approve funding by Sept. 30. The standoff boils down to clashes between Republicans, Democrats, and the Trump administration over spending levels and policy riders. Since the 1970s, when today’s shutdown rules took shape, the U.S. has weathered roughly 21 shutdowns marked by funding gaps that stalled or scaled back federal operations.

A Polymarket wager is banking on the government slamming the brakes by Oct. 1, with 27% of bettors convinced it’s on the way. “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by October 1, 2025,” the Polymarket bet explains.

Another standalone Polymarket bet, tracking whether the federal government shuts down at any point in 2025, is giving the odds a coin-flip feel at 55%.

Over on Kalshi, traders are giving it a 56% chance that the government shutters sometime this year, with the wager pulling in $995,380 in volume. Once again, the folks on Capitol Hill are proving that balancing a budget is about as tricky for them as assembling complicated furniture without the manual.

With markets betting on a shutdown like it’s the season’s hottest sport, it’s clear the only thing Congress excels at these days is turning fiscal responsibility into high-stakes theater—and the taxpayers are stuck paying for the tickets.