Ethereum falls below the $4,000 mark! BitMine's holdings have unrealized losses, and experts predict there is still hope for a rebound in Q4.

Ethereum price came under pressure again on September 26, briefly falling below the psychological threshold of $4,000, with a low of $3,962, resulting in a 24-hour decline of 3.7%. The market's largest Ethereum reserve company, BitMine, has seen its 2.41 million ETH Holdings drop below the cost line, entering a state of unrealized losses. However, crypto assets trading firm QCP Capital's latest report indicates that with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter and the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, there may still be opportunities for a rebound in the market.

Ethereum breaks below key support level, institutional investors begin to feel the pressure

(Source: Trading View)

After experiencing a severe fall on September 22 earlier this week, Ethereum was once again hit by selling pressure on September 26, breaking below the important psychological level of $4,000, with a low spike down to $3,962.

This price trend has not only dampened market sentiment but has also put pressure on some institutional investors. According to the latest monitoring by on-chain data analyst Yu Jin, BitMine, currently the largest Ethereum reserve company in the market, has entered a state of unrealized losses.

BitMine Holdings Cost Exposed, Large Institutional Investors Start to Come Under Pressure

Data shows that after BitMine actively increased its holdings of Ether last week, it currently holds a total of 2.41 million ETH, with an average purchase cost of about $4,016. This means that as the price of Ether falls below $4,000, the institution's substantial holdings have begun to show unrealized losses.

In comparison, the situation of SharpLink, the second largest Ethereum reserve company in the market, is slightly better. Data shows that SharpLink currently holds a total of 838,000 ETH, with an average purchase cost of about $3,603, and there is still a certain amount of unrealized gains.

The exposure of the cost line for institutional investors provides an important technical reference point for the market. Analysts point out that BitMine's cost line of $4,016 may become an important resistance level for Ethereum's future rebound, while SharpLink's cost line of $3,603 may become a key support area below.

QCP Capital: Short-term Risks and Opportunities Coexist in the Fourth Quarter

In the face of the market's continuous fall, the well-known crypto assets trading institution QCP Capital has presented a cautious yet optimistic view in its market analysis report released today.

QCP Capital warns that if the market falls further, Bitcoin may test a support level of $107,000, while Ethereum faces the risk of dropping to $3,300. This prediction is worth close attention from investors, as $3,300 is not only an important technical support level but also close to SharpLink's cost line.

Analysis of Rebound Factors in the Fourth Quarter

However, QCP Capital also emphasized that the market outlook is not without hope, mainly based on the following two key factors:

Seasonal Advantage: The fourth quarter has historically been a phase where crypto assets perform better. With the arrival of October, the market may welcome a seasonal rebound. Historical data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum typically perform well in the fourth quarter, and this pattern has been validated multiple times over the past few years.

Monetary Policy Support: The Federal Reserve (Fed) restarted its interest rate cuts in September, and the market expects further cuts in October and December. This environment of monetary easing typically supports risk assets, including Crypto Assets, and is expected to bring new momentum to the market.

However, QCP Capital also reminds investors to be aware of potential risks: if the U.S. non-farm payroll data next week performs unexpectedly strong, it may impact the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, thereby breaking the hope for a rebound.

Key Observations of Market Trends

For Ethereum investors, there are currently several key levels that need to be closely monitored:

$4,000: The gains and losses at this psychological threshold will impact short-term market sentiment.

$4,016: The average cost line of BitMine, which may become a significant resistance level.

3,603 USD: SharpLink's average cost line, which may provide mid-term support.

$3,300: Downside risk target proposed by QCP Capital

Technical analysts point out that Ethereum is currently at a critical technical crossroads. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is nearing the oversold territory, which is often a signal for a potential rebound. However, the moving average structure has turned bearish, indicating that there may still be downward pressure in the short term.

Institutional investor behavior deserves attention

In the current market environment, the behavior of institutional investors will be a key factor influencing price trends. If large holders like BitMine begin to reduce their positions to stop losses, it may exacerbate the downward pressure on the market; conversely, if they choose to increase their holdings at the current price level, it may provide support for the market.

On-chain data shows that there are currently no obvious signs of panic among large wallet addresses, which could be a positive signal. However, as prices approach the cost lines of more institutional investors, market volatility may further increase.

Conclusion: Risks and Opportunities Coexist

The fall of Ethereum below $4,000 is undoubtedly a market signal worth paying attention to, especially as the largest institutional holders begin to face unrealized losses. However, as pointed out by QCP Capital, the seasonal advantages of the fourth quarter and the loose monetary policy environment still provide the market with the possibility of a rebound.

For investors, while maintaining risk awareness in the current market environment, attention should also be paid to potential entry opportunities. The performance of technical support levels, the behavior of institutional investors, and macroeconomic data (especially the upcoming non-farm payroll data) will be key factors in determining the short-term market direction.