OG cashing out, miners 'defect', an article reveals the supply and demand dilemma of Bitcoin.

This article will analyze the reasons behind Bitcoin's recent weak performance, exploring the impact of long-term holder behavior, miner transitions, and ETF capital flows on prices. (Background: Over 160 Bitcoin treasury companies compete on stage, creating three major leverage strategies for mNAV premium) (Background supplement: Bitcoin and global liquidity: does it follow or lead?) This year, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) has almost underperformed all major asset classes. By the fourth quarter of 2025, its performance has significantly lagged behind gold, the Nasdaq index, the S&P 500 index, the Hang Seng index, and the Nikkei 225 index. Investors who hoped President Trump’s support would bring favorable market conditions and bought Bitcoin around his inauguration in 2025 have only seen a meager return of slightly over 5%. This article will delve into Bitcoin's recent weak performance, focusing on its critical supply and demand dynamics. We will deconstruct the continuously evolving price movement of Bitcoin through an analysis of the behavior of long-term holders, changes in mining activities, and ETF capital flows. Bitcoin's “Year of Disappointment” The chart above shows that since Trump’s inauguration in 2025, Bitcoin's performance has significantly lagged behind the US stock market. The gains of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have outpaced Bitcoin by over 100%, while Bitcoin's trend has remained relatively flat. If you had bought Bitcoin on inauguration day (January 20, 2025), your investment return would have been only 5.78%. In comparison, major stock indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have significantly outperformed Bitcoin during the same period. Even traditional safe-haven asset gold has far outperformed Bitcoin. Where is the selling pressure? Long-term holders and miners $100,000: The psychological take-profit level of veteran players Bitcoin's price has hovered around the psychological barrier of $100,000. As the price stagnates at this level, long-term holders seem to be engaging in de-risking. Whenever BTC > $100,000, the selling from “veteran players” increases. The chart (shown in purple and blue) indicates that the “Spent Volume” of long-term holders has risen, suggesting that more Bitcoin “veterans” are choosing to sell after holding for many years. The chart reveals that when BTC prices exceed $100,000, trading activity of old coins significantly increases, reinforcing the view that early Bitcoin holders are selling at current price levels. We speculate that as other asset classes (especially in AI) surge this year, many “veteran players” focusing on technology seem to be rotating from Bitcoin to other fields to diversify and seize new opportunities. This shift has caused ongoing upward selling pressure, limiting each rebound this year. Tracking Bitcoin whales This selling pressure may contribute to a frustrating market environment, causing Bitcoin to remain in a volatile state this year instead of experiencing meaningful breakthroughs. To trigger a potential upward trend, Bitcoin may first need to breach the support level of $100,000 to effectively flush out these sellers. One of the key wallets driving this behavior can be tracked on Arkham Intelligence. Just in October, this wallet deposited over $600 million worth of Bitcoin into various exchanges, a key indicator to monitor whether market pressure eases. You can explore this wallet here. Bitcoin miners: Transitioning from “network guardians” to “AI data centers” As Bitcoin miners transition part of their business from Bitcoin mining to AI-driven high-performance data centers (HPC), the security of Bitcoin may face new risks. The miners' shift towards AI may weaken Bitcoin's decentralized network, leading to a decline in computing power (hash rate) in the long run. Core Scientific ($CORZ): Signed a 12-year HPC hosting agreement with CoreWeave, transforming existing 100 megawatt (MW) infrastructure and paving the way for broader merging votes by the end of the month. Iris Energy ($IREN): Has expanded its AI cloud to over 23,000 NVIDIA GPUs and achieved the status of “preferred partner” with NVIDIA. TeraWulf ($WULF): Secured a 10-year AI hosting contract exceeding 200 megawatts (MW), valued at up to $8.7 billion. Bitdeer ($BTDR): As one of the most aggressive participants, plans to retrofit part of its Norwegian Tydal mine (175 MW) and its Ohio Clarington facility (570 MW capacity) into AI data centers by the end of 2026, aiming for over 200 megawatts of AI IT load. CleanSpark ($CLSK) / Riot Platforms ($RIOT): Even traditional pure mining companies like CleanSpark and Riot Platforms are hiring “data center leads” and designing new parks around “dual-use computers” (dual-use computers). The impact of weakened Bitcoin network: Unseen risks Source: BitInfoCharts The decline in computing power due to miners no longer maintaining the security of the Bitcoin network may lower network security. A less secure Bitcoin network would decrease its attractiveness to institutional investors, which could lead to reduced demand and ultimately suppress prices. Miners that once provided critical support for Bitcoin's infrastructure are now turning their attention to more profitable businesses in AI and cloud services. This migration raises concerns about the future prospects of Bitcoin as a store of value and decentralized asset. Demand-side dynamics: ETF capital inflows and government seizures ETF: The biggest demand driver This chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ETF inflows and price movements. When ETF inflows are strong, Bitcoin prices rise; however, since mid-July, the lack of capital inflows has led to stagnation in Bitcoin prices, highlighting the important role of ETFs in driving demand. Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 are highly positively correlated with Bitcoin prices, indicating that earlier this year, Bitcoin ETF inflows significantly drove price increases—however, since July 10, capital inflows have stagnated, and Bitcoin prices have remained stagnant as well. Limited growth of ETF capital inflows Although institutional capital inflows through Bitcoin ETFs are seen as a strong indicator of Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class, the continued lack of inflows suggests that institutional interest may have peaked. US government seizures and their impact on Bitcoin's viability One of the core narratives of Bitcoin is “against government control.” However, recent events are challenging this…