Why did Bitcoin rise today? Trump extends tariff exemptions for China until November 2026.

The Trump administration announced that it will extend the exemption from Trump tariffs on certain industrial and medical-related imports from China for another year until November 10, 2026, including key equipment used in the manufacturing of solar products, which was originally set to expire on November 29. Following the announcement, Bitcoin surged sharply above $90,000, with the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 rising to 0.87, indicating an increased linkage with risk assets.

Trump's tariff exemption extended to 2026 releases positive news

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) stated in a release: “In light of the agreement reached by both parties, as well as public comments regarding the further extension of the exemptions, and under the direction of the President, the U.S. Trade Representative has decided to extend the 178 Trump tariff exemptions originally set to expire on November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026.” This extension covers 14 categories of import products related to solar manufacturing equipment, as well as 164 categories of industrial and medical-related goods, including electric motors, blood pressure monitoring devices, pump components, automotive air compressors, and printed circuit boards.

Previously, the United States adjusted certain measures in its Section 301 investigation against China, excluding certain Chinese products from additional tariffs. The Section 301 investigation is based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and serves as the primary legal basis for the United States to take action against other countries perceived as “violating trade agreements or engaging in unfair trade practices.” Trump extensively invoked Section 301 to impose tariffs on Chinese goods during his first term, triggering the Sino-U.S. trade war.

Trump and Chinese leaders held a summit during the informal meeting of APEC leaders in Busan, South Korea on October 30, laying the foundation for this round of trade truce. A fact sheet on the trade agreement released by the White House indicated that China agreed to further open its market to U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products; committed to strengthening regulation and curbing the flow of precursor chemicals necessary for manufacturing fentanyl into the U.S.; decided to lift export controls on rare earths and other globally critical industrial minerals; and to terminate previous retaliatory measures against U.S. semiconductor companies and others.

In return, the United States agreed to lower some of the tariffs imposed on China by Trump and to suspend the implementation of new export control measures. After the Busan summit, Trump had another call with Chinese leaders on the evening of November 24. Trump stated that both the U.S. and China had made “significant progress” in maintaining the “timeliness and accuracy” of the agreement reached last month. He added that during this call, the other party “more or less” agreed to accelerate and expand the scale of China's purchases of U.S. goods.

The USTR stated that this extension decision is an important part of implementing the recent economic and trade agreement between the U.S. and China, aimed at providing a certain degree of policy certainty for the supply chain and creating buffer space for enterprises in the current complex global trade environment. This policy certainty is extremely important for the financial markets as it reduces the risk of future trade conflicts and improves the outlook for the global economic prospects.

Why Bitcoin Rises Today: Correlation with US Stocks Soars to 0.87

(Source: Newhedge)

The core reason for the rise of Bitcoin today lies in its high correlation with the traditional stock market. Digital assets broke through $90,000 on Wednesday afternoon, reflecting that stocks also showed strong growth. According to data from Newhedge, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 rose to 0.87 on Wednesday. In other words, these two types of assets actually move in sync. Therefore, when stocks rose due to more AI hype on the eve of Thanksgiving, Bitcoin also increased.

Oracle, a major cloud infrastructure player, reached a $300 billion deal with OpenAI in September, leading the surge of large tech stocks. This is largely attributed to Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick, who praised the company's potential to generate revenue from the arrangement. “OpenAI's backlog represents a solid investment return business,” Zelnick wrote. “And it validates Oracle's leadership in the large-scale deployment of AI cloud infrastructure.”

The Oracle has risen by 4%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increased by 0.77%, 0.86%, and 0.80%, respectively. Bitcoin rose by 4%, surpassing $90,000 for the first time this week, just in time for Turkey Day (Thanksgiving). This synchronized rise clearly demonstrates the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market.

This high correlation stems from institutional trends. In the past, crypto punks and bearded libertarians were typical representatives of Bitcoin. However, after the approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) last year, the new image is likely to be Wall Street executives dressed in navy blue suits. The ETF now holds over 1.5 million BTC, accounting for nearly 7.2% of the total supply. The next largest group of holders is publicly listed companies. This is key, as it may explain why Bitcoin's surge to $90,000 on Wednesday closely followed the stock market's rise.

The Three Major Drivers of Bitcoin's Rise Today

Trump Tariff Exemption Extension: Easing of China-U.S. trade tensions improves global economic outlook

US Stock AI Boom: Oracle + OpenAI $300 billion deal drives tech stocks higher

Correlation with US Stocks 0.87: Institutionalization has caused BTC to follow the fluctuations of the traditional market.

Market Data: Daily Trading Volume 65 Billion USD

(Source: Trading view)

On November 27, Bitcoin returned above $90,000, fluctuating between $86,171.48 and $90,389.93 in the past 24 hours. This fluctuation range of about $4,200 indicates a higher market activity but does not show extreme volatility.

The daily trading volume remained roughly flat at $65 billion, with a market capitalization of $1.79 trillion. This stable trading volume indicates a healthy level of market participation, with no signs of panic selling or FOMO-driven buying frenzies. Bitcoin's market dominance has rebounded to 58.75%, an increase of 0.41%, as this cryptocurrency has reclaimed a small portion of market share from smaller cryptocurrencies. This rebound in market dominance is typical of 'safe-haven rotation', where funds flow back into Bitcoin from altcoins when market uncertainty rises.

Coinglass data shows that the total open interest in Bitcoin futures has increased by 2.24%, reaching $60.52 billion, after dipping to $59 billion on Tuesday. The rise in open interest indicates that new funds are entering the derivatives market, which usually suggests that subsequent price volatility may intensify. At the time of writing, liquidation is still slightly up, at $11.9 million. Short sellers saw $80.58 million in margin wiped out, while long investors were largely unaffected, with only $19.61 million liquidated. This liquidation structure indicates that shorts have suffered significant losses in this upward move, while longs remain relatively safe.

It is important to clarify that Bitcoin is not always closely correlated with stocks; it often diverges. However, as institutional capital flows into the ecosystem, this cryptocurrency will inevitably yield to Wall Street and simply reflect the ups and downs of traditional markets. This institutional trend is both a sign of Bitcoin's mainstreaming and indicates that its independence as an “alternative asset” is weakening.

Strategic Significance of Trump's Tariff Policy

The recent extension of Trump’s tariff exemptions covers 178 products, with the duration extended from the originally scheduled November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026. This extension is not only a technical adjustment but also an important signal of the improvement in China-US relations. At the peak of the trade war, the US imposed tariffs on approximately $370 billion worth of Chinese goods, covering nearly all import categories. Now, by retaining exemptions and extending the deadline, it shows that the Trump administration is seeking balance in its policy towards China.

The exemption for solar manufacturing equipment is particularly noteworthy. Although the United States is promoting the return of domestic manufacturing, the solar industry supply chain is highly dependent on Chinese suppliers. If tariffs are imposed on these equipment, it will significantly increase the costs of solar projects in the U.S., undermining its clean energy goals. This pragmatic exemption demonstrates that the Trump administration has chosen practical interests over ideology.

From a market perspective, Trump's tariff exemption extension has reduced the risk of disruptions in the global supply chain and improved companies' cost expectations, which is positive for the stock market and risk assets. Why has Bitcoin risen today? Part of the answer lies in this improvement in the macro environment. When the trade war eases and the global economic outlook improves, investors' risk appetite increases, and funds flow into high-beta assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Rebound Before Thanksgiving

From a technical perspective, the breakthrough of Bitcoin on Wednesday is significant. $90,000 is an important psychological barrier, and BTC has attempted to breach this level multiple times in the past few weeks but has failed each time. This time, being able to break through and hold steady indicates that bullish momentum is regaining strength. In the past 24 hours, it fluctuated between $86,171.48 and $90,389.93, showing that the process of breaking through was not smooth, but ultimately held the $90,000 mark.

The timing before Thanksgiving is also worth noting. The U.S. financial markets have shortened trading hours during the Thanksgiving holiday (the fourth Thursday of November), with only half a day of trading on Friday. In this low liquidity environment, price fluctuations may be amplified. Bitcoin's choice to break through 90,000 USD before the holiday may be the result of institutions adjusting their positions before the holiday, hoping to enter the holiday at higher prices and avoid unexpected market fluctuations during the holiday.

Shorts were liquidated for 80.58 million dollars while longs were only liquidated for 19.61 million dollars, indicating a 4:1 liquidation ratio that shows short sellers suffered significant losses during this rally. These forced liquidations of short positions turned into buying pressure, further driving up prices and creating a “short squeeze” effect.