Gate.io data on September 23, the Guosheng fixed income research report pointed out that the asset shortage may intensify in the fourth quarter. Due to the relatively high interest rate, market-oriented non-government bond financing remains persistently weak. The year-on-year increase in the past three months was about 600 billion yuan per month. In the short term, if the interest rate remains relatively stable, it may continue to be at this level in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, supported by the surge in government bond issuance, the total financing of government bonds increased by 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, with an average monthly increase of more than 400 billion yuan. However, according to the current budget, the net financing amount in the fourth quarter will significantly decline. The total net financing of government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year will be 1.6 trillion yuan, while it was 3.6 trillion yuan in the same period last year, with a year-on-year average decrease of nearly 700 billion yuan. If the monthly average increase in non-government bond financing remains at about 600 billion yuan less than the same period last year, the overall year-on-year decrease in social financing will expand from an average of 300 billion yuan per month in the past three months to about 1.3 trillion yuan. Even if a deficit of 1 trillion yuan is added in the fourth quarter, it will be difficult to change the situation of significant year-on-year decrease, and the asset shortage may further intensify.
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Guosheng Fixed Income: There may be an intensification of asset shortage in the fourth quarter
Gate.io data on September 23, the Guosheng fixed income research report pointed out that the asset shortage may intensify in the fourth quarter. Due to the relatively high interest rate, market-oriented non-government bond financing remains persistently weak. The year-on-year increase in the past three months was about 600 billion yuan per month. In the short term, if the interest rate remains relatively stable, it may continue to be at this level in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, supported by the surge in government bond issuance, the total financing of government bonds increased by 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, with an average monthly increase of more than 400 billion yuan. However, according to the current budget, the net financing amount in the fourth quarter will significantly decline. The total net financing of government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year will be 1.6 trillion yuan, while it was 3.6 trillion yuan in the same period last year, with a year-on-year average decrease of nearly 700 billion yuan. If the monthly average increase in non-government bond financing remains at about 600 billion yuan less than the same period last year, the overall year-on-year decrease in social financing will expand from an average of 300 billion yuan per month in the past three months to about 1.3 trillion yuan. Even if a deficit of 1 trillion yuan is added in the fourth quarter, it will be difficult to change the situation of significant year-on-year decrease, and the asset shortage may further intensify.