IEA: It is expected that the scale of oversupply in the oil market will expand next year.

On November 14th, Jinshi Data News: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will be more than 1 million barrels per day next year, which will provide the market with the “much-needed stability.” The latest IEA monthly report shows that the oversupply of oil is expected to be 1.15 million barrels per day next year. This is the highest level since the agency first predicted supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year, an increase of 40,000 barrels per day compared to last month’s estimate. IEA said, “Due to supply risks being everywhere, a looser balance will provide some much-needed stability to the market that has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and recent unrest in the Middle East.” If OPEC+ member countries proceed with the production increase plan and start lifting the “voluntary” production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in 12 months from January next year, the oversupply scale estimated by the IEA could be much higher, but this is not guaranteed. IEA’s forecast for oil demand in the next two years is still less than 1 million barrels per day. It has raised this year’s oil demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 barrels per day, mainly due to higher-than-expected oil consumption in Europe; at the same time, it has lowered next year’s forecast by 10,000 barrels per day to 990,000 barrels per day.