Conditions necessary for ETH to突破 10000

When I look at the Ethereum chart, I really have a feeling that it's going to skyrocket. From what I've seen of cryptocurrency analysts and AI model predictions, ETH is likely to reach significant highs between 2025 and 2030.

In 2025, it could be between 4,300 and 15,000, in 2026 between 4,800 and 17,000, and by 2030, it could reach 7,500 to 40,000? Those numbers sound like a dream, but given the current market trends, it seems very possible. Right now, it's still hovering around 4,400, but it's already rebounded by 150% from the low at the beginning of 2025.

The support for this explosive rise is likely the money flow from institutional investors, the expansion of Layer-2, and the growth of DeFi and RWA. Regulations are also gradually becoming a tailwind.

From a technical perspective

The Pectra upgrade has now started operating, increasing the capacity of data blobs and improving L2 performance. It feels like gas fees have decreased and processing speed has increased. The 2026 Fusaka upgrade is expected to be on a huge scale, focusing on decentralized storage and AI integration.

The position as the “computer of the world” is expected to be strengthened, accelerating the development of decentralized applications and AI agents. The gas limit on the mainnet will also rise to 50 million, and the total amount of the L2 ETH bridge will likely exceed 10 million.

Looking at the chart, it is forming an ascending triangle. It has rebounded from the low of 1385 in 2025 and has tested the resistance line of 2578 several times. Recently, it has risen to around 5000. The RSI is overbought, so there may be a short-term adjustment to 3800-4200, but in the long run, the upward trend is likely to continue.

In this triangle pattern, there is a possibility to reach 8000-16500 in 2025-2026. However, in Q3-Q4 of 2025, there may be a correction to 4066-3800, and in the worst case, down to 3353. But in Q4, there should be a strong rebound due to seasonal factors and institutional money inflow.

From a Basic Perspective

Will the ETH ETF in 2025 exceed net inflows of 50 billion dollars? Right now, it's still under 10 billion, but large institutions like BlackRock are launching ETH-based tokenized RWA platforms.

There is a possibility that multiple countries will incorporate ETH into their treasury assets, and if regulations on stablecoins are relaxed due to policies in Europe and America, activity on Ethereum will likely become more active. Most of the RWA and stablecoins are built on Ethereum.

The TVL of DeFi seems to be reaching an all-time high, and AI agents are likely to become a major trend in 2025. High-performance L2s like MegaETH and Rise might take market share from high-performance L1s. Base may also have the possibility to issue tokens independently from Coinbase.

If demand increases explosively and supply tightens, the price can only go up. The FRB's monetary easing policy, the revival of risk assets, and Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly attitude (with 91% of holdings in ETH) will also be tailwinds.

Compared to the last bull market, Ethereum has been comprehensively upgraded with staking, burning, ETFs, L2, etc., so there may be rises that exceed expectations.

Market Sentiment and Risk

The current market sentiment feels as cold as before the last bull market, but looking at the accumulation by whales and the optimistic signals from institutional investors, a turning point may be near.

Looking at the discussions on the X platform, many users are anticipating short-term targets of 5000-10000, while some are making extreme predictions of 20000-25000. The AI model predicts 6000-15000 by 2025.

However, the uncertainty of regulations, macroeconomic recession, and the rise of competing chains may lead to adjustments in ETH. The overbought RSI and wedge pattern require attention around the support near 3800.

The ETH/BTC rate has finished a 4-year parabola, so this time it seems like ETH will lead the latter half of the cycle.

Overall, Ethereum in 2025 will enter a “crazy bull market” and will likely experience a strong rebound after a short-term adjustment. The maturity of the ecosystem is expected to provide long-term benefits.

Looking at the current trend, it is overall bullish, but there is also a possibility of entering a long adjustment risk phase.

You should also consider a position strategy:

• Long: Distributed entry at 3380-4068

• Take profit: 5000-6000-7000-8000

• Stop: below 3300

• Short: Diversified entry around 4650-4800

• Take profit: 4330-4068-3830-3380

• Stop: 5000

Support Levels: 4350, 4066, 3800, 3353 Resistance Levels: 3700, 5000

If you can't manage your position, then technical analysis is meaningless. Try leveraging 2 times, add at 3 times, confirm at 4 times, and go all-in at 5 times. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so this is purely a personal suggestion and not investment advice.