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#AprilMarketOutlook
#四月行情预测
Final Negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, at the heart of the US-Iran tension, has severely disrupted global energy flows since February 2026. Iran's de facto closure of the strait or heavy restrictions on passage (with some reports alleging a $2 million transit fee per ship) have affected approximately 20% of global oil trade. Developments in the last 24-48 hours reveal both optimistic signals and deep contradictions in negotiations for a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait. However, the inconsistencies in the statements of the parties indicate that any concrete agreement is still a long way off.
US President Donald Trump stated on March 31, 2026, that US military operations in Iran could end "within 2 to 3 weeks." Trump emphasized that the security of the strait was no longer the responsibility of the US, but should be undertaken by "the countries using the strait," criticizing allies (especially European countries and NATO) by telling them to "take your own oil." While the White House claims that “serious talks” are ongoing with Iran and that “great progress” has been made, it is alleged that Trump has had indirect contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
On the other hand, the Iranian side is responding with a clear rejection. Tehran repeatedly emphasizes that it is not conducting any formal negotiations with the US. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it is turning back ships attempting to pass through the strait and will respond harshly. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that they are “ready to end the war,” but that this is only possible with “concrete guarantees that will guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people.” Pezeshkian also demanded guarantees against future attacks during a meeting with the President of the European Council. Iranian officials state that they have rejected the US’s 15-point proposal and will not compromise on their sovereign rights over the strait.
The latest situation in the negotiations can be summarized as follows:
- US side: Indirect messaging and claims of “progress”; Trump’s recent statement signals that operations may end soon.
- Iranian side: No official talks, just a message of “we are ready but we want guarantees.”
- Third parties: There are reports of Pakistan, China, and some European countries playing a mediating role, but no concrete progress has been publicly disclosed. - The situation of the Strait: It is still largely closed or heavily restricted; neither the US nor Iran has taken concrete steps towards a full opening.
Analysts interpret Trump's approach of "leaving the Strait to others" as a "post-war withdrawal" strategy, while warning that geopolitical risk will continue. Experts state that attempts to forcibly reopen it (including ground operations) could have very dangerous consequences and that diplomacy is the only realistic way. At this stage, with both sides maintaining their positions, the possibility of a permanent ceasefire or the liberalization of the Strait in April remains uncertain.
**This is in no way investment advice, market forecast, or endorsement.** Events can change rapidly; contradictory statements and uncertainties can lead to new developments at any moment. Approaching geopolitical issues cautiously and with distance, conducting your own independent research, and following official sources is always the most accurate approach. I recommend that you personally follow current developments.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains one of the most critical geopolitical bottlenecks disrupting global energy flows following the US-Israeli operations that began in February 2026. Iran's retaliatory closure of the strait affected approximately 20% of global oil and LNG trade, leading to sharp increases in energy prices. However, recent statements from both Washington and Tehran have revived the possibility of a ceasefire in April. Nevertheless, experts emphasize that any agreement could be fragile and that instability in the region could persist for months.
US President Donald Trump, in a statement from the Oval Office on March 31, 2026, stated that US military operations in Iran would end "within two to three weeks" and that they would be "leaving soon." While arguing that the main objectives (preventing nuclear capabilities and regime change) had largely been achieved, Trump implied that the option of withdrawing even before the Strait of Hormuz was fully reopened was still on the table. Trump, who had previously postponed his threats against Iranian energy facilities until April 6, stated that the talks were "going well."
The Iranian side, however, is more cautious. President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his latest statements, indicated that his country "has the will to end the war," but that this would only be possible "with concrete guarantees that will ensure the security and interests of the Iranian people." Tehran rejected the 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed by the US through Pakistan, instead demanding compensation and sovereignty over the straits. While Iranian officials reiterated that "there are no official negotiations yet," Pezeshkian's emphasis on "guarantees against future attacks" during a phone call with the President of the European Council was noteworthy.
These developments created a brief period of optimism in the markets. Following Trump's timeline and the Iranian leader's "we are ready" signal, US stock markets rose, Bitcoin approached the $71,000 mark, and risk appetite increased somewhat. Precious metals (gold and silver) experienced volatile movements as the geopolitical risk premium decreased; they declined in some sessions and recovered in others. However, analysts remind us that strait traffic is still at very low levels (around 5%) and oil prices are putting pressure above $100. It seems premature to expect lasting relief without a complete ceasefire.
Predictions for April are shaped by this uncertainty. Will a concrete ceasefire between the US and Iran occur this month? There is no clear answer at the moment; both sides are maintaining their positions, and third parties (Pakistan, China, European countries) are playing a mediating role. Although a general bullish optimism prevails in the cryptocurrency market, a sudden reversal of geopolitical shocks could reverse risk appetite at any moment. Regarding sectors where early positions are recommended (energy, defense, precious metals), analysts advise caution, as post-war recovery could take months, even years.
Warning: This text is based on my personal knowledge and commentary regarding the tags and topics in the Gate Square post, using the most up-to-date publicly available news sources. It does not constitute investment advice, encouragement, or recommendation in any way. Markets are highly speculative and unpredictable; geopolitical developments can change rapidly. Approaching events with distance and caution, acting according to your own risk tolerance and independent research, is always the healthiest approach. I recommend following current developments from official sources.
#AprilMarketOutlook