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【Chain Wen】Bitcoin once again broke through $90,000, hitting a nearly three-week high. The rally looks promising, but what's really interesting is what’s happening beneath the surface.
The bulls are not as aggressive as imagined. Although the price is rebounding, the enthusiasm for opening leveraged long positions in Bitcoin remains subdued, and the futures basis rate has stayed below the neutral line. Currently, the annualized premium is only 4%—definitely not impressive for a bull market.
What better illustrates the situation is the flow of funds. From spot ETF and derivatives data, traders are collectively holding—neither daring to enter heavily nor rushing to exit, showing a wait-and-see attitude. Since mid-December, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced net outflows of over $900 million, indicating institutional investors are reducing their positions. Meanwhile, put options are still trading at a premium, suggesting professional traders are increasing hedges against downside risks.
Overall, market sentiment remains cautious. Although

【BitPush】On-chain data tracking platform Arkham detected a major transfer. Around 16:33 Beijing time, a mysterious wallet transferred out 2,001,800 TON tokens, worth approximately $3,583,200 USD. This large sum moved from a hidden address (Uf860s5t… start) to another equally mysterious address (Ef8zMzMz… start). Even more interesting, the recipient immediately pushed all 2,001,800 TON into the TON ecosystem.
Such large on-chain activities usually reveal the intentions of whales and institutions. Although the wallet is anonymous, based on the transfer scale and subsequent operations, this appears to be a carefully planned asset reallocation. TON, as the native ecosystem of Telegram

Ethereum spot ETF recently saw a net inflow of $174 million, with Grayscale's ETHE product contributing $53.6861 million. However, in the long term, ETHE has experienced a total net outflow of $4.996 billion, reflecting market preferences for different ETF products and revealing differences in capital flow directions.

Recently, a transfer of 19,200 ETH has attracted attention. The transaction is valued at over $60 million and may involve staking operations. Market participants are curious about the trends of such large transfers, reflecting a change in market sentiment.

Bitcoin Hyper raised over $30 million during the pre-sale, demonstrating market anticipation for its layer-two solution. The project aims to enhance Bitcoin transaction throughput while maintaining its economic foundation, and to address the issue of reduced direct usability caused by different layer-two solutions, exploring new directions for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

An active whale wallet is building a short position on ETH, with a 10x leverage short position totaling 21,820.69 ETH, worth approximately $66.51 million. The trader may be waiting for a market downturn and should be cautious of the risks associated with high leverage.

Recent market data shows that Chainlink is performing steadily, holding the $10 support level and staying above the 200-day moving average, with a positive outlook. In comparison, Hyperliquid faces resistance and needs to break through to regain upward momentum. Key levels determine each of their opportunities.

Recently, exchanges launched the second phase of the contract module event, offering platform tokens WXT as a rebate for contract trading, with a maximum of 40%. These WXT can be withdrawn or used to participate in the airdrop of the new project Monad, with first-time investors enjoying double subsidies. Continuous trading and inviting friends can upgrade the miner level and increase earnings. The countdown for the event has only 13 days left, providing users with a low-cost opportunity to participate in the new project.

CryptoQuant Research Director pointed out that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for two consecutive months, with the bottom range estimated between $56,000 and $60,000. If the analysis is accurate, the price still needs to decline further to reach the bottom. This reasoning based on historical data is worth paying attention to.

Although XRP is expected to decline by 12% this year, on-chain data shows the market is slowly accumulating. Exchange XRP reserves are decreasing, and technical analysis indicates sideways consolidation, suggesting bullish sentiment and that the market may be gathering strength at lower levels, anticipating a rebound in the future.

LIGHT (Bitlight) experienced intense volatility, with the price soaring from $0.32 to $2.5, then plummeting 77.3% in a short period to $0.5287, and rebounding to $0.64. A total of $32.11 million was liquidated within 24 hours. Investors are reminded that small-cap tokens have weak liquidity and high risk, so leverage trading should be approached with caution.

In 2025, the crypto market experienced volatility, but institutional investors' demand for digital assets remained strong, with approximately $31.77 billion invested in crypto ETFs throughout the year. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs performed notably, especially BlackRock's products dominating the market. Looking ahead to 2026, although the number of new ETFs will surge, insufficient demand may lead to some products exiting the market. Overall, market segmentation will intensify, with leading products demonstrating strong capital attraction capabilities.

Recent fluctuations in silver and gold prices have attracted attention and may indicate trends in the digital currency market. The strong performance of traditional commodities could have a positive impact on the outlook for BTC and ETH in 2026. Market changes are bringing medium-term expectations for digital assets.

Recently, over $700 million worth of Bitcoin has been moved, with 739 Bitcoins transferred from an unknown address to an institutional dedicated wallet of a leading exchange. This transfer has attracted market attention and could impact large transactions and market sentiment; subsequent developments remain to be seen.

An investor shared his view on ETH, believing that continuous accumulation of ETH should be maintained, ignoring short-term fluctuations and focusing on long-term bull market opportunities. He mentioned that a major bull market may occur in 2026, emphasizing the importance of judgment on future market trends and a trend-investment mindset, while also reminding about risk management.

In recent discussions, investors believe that the Manus project demonstrates the practical potential of general Agents. If combined with zkTLS, it could bring new opportunities in privacy computing. This combination is expected to create significant value in data security and intelligent applications.

Mutuum Finance's token presale has entered the seventh phase, raising $19.5 million and selling 820 million tokens. The project is dedicated to a dual-market DeFi lending protocol, has completed a security audit, and established a $50,000 bug bounty. V1 version is being deployed on the testnet to test its functionality.

An investor successfully invested $22,500 in the Meme coin WhiteWhale on the Solana blockchain. After 21 days of operation, the unrealized profit has exceeded $560,000, with a growth of 24 times. This reflects the trading opportunities and high risks coexist in the Solana ecosystem.

On-chain data shows that a seasoned short whale has adjusted its trading strategy, gradually reducing LIT short positions while maintaining large BTC short positions. Its BTC position has an unrealized profit of $11.53 million, indicating a strong prediction of market movement, which is worth paying attention to.