The Federal Reserve has an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year, with a 15.5% chance of a rate cut. The market expects a tightening liquidity environment, which may impact crypto asset allocation. Investors should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's developments.
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AlphaLeaker:
84.5% probability is indeed quite strong, but these numbers will probably change again in a few days, right?
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During periods of liquidity tightness, it's actually a good opportunity to get in; it all depends on who can withstand the psychological pressure.
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Here we go again with the rhetoric of closely monitoring the Federal Reserve; you still have to read the charts yourself.
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Tightening expectations suppress high-risk assets? Well, let's see how those coins are still bouncing around now.
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Maintaining a 85% interest rate—this probability sounds like it's saying the probability itself is meaningless; the market has already priced it in.
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I've heard the term "bottom opportunity" so many times, but when it actually comes, few people dare to buy in.
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Being prepared is right, but prepared for what? Funds or mindset?
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When liquidity becomes tighter, it means you need to slow down on the bend; this time, you really need to be more careful.
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Instead of guessing the next move of the Federal Reserve, it's better to see where the institutions are stacking their chips.
Pacifica Decentralized Perpetual Contract Platform launches cross-platform funding rate query feature, helping traders compare rates across different platforms in real-time and identify arbitrage opportunities. Several traders have used this feature to profit from hedged positions, with detailed reference data on the differences of major cryptocurrencies. The platform also introduces a copy trading tool, allowing users to replicate high-frequency trader strategies and earn additional trading points.
Recently, precious metal prices have fallen back, with platinum, palladium, and silver facing profit-taking pressure, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have begun to rebound. Analysts believe that the precious metals market is saturated with funds, making short-term rebounds difficult to sustain, leading capital to flow into relatively undervalued cryptocurrencies to optimize risk and return.
Recent on-chain data shows a significant outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges, with a total net outflow of 510.29 BTC. Exchanges like Kraken, Gemini, and Gate have consecutively seen BTC outflows, while a major exchange has absorbed a large inflow, indicating differing perceptions of BTC's value among market participants, which may signal a shift in market sentiment.
【Crypto World】SOL's performance over the past 4 hours is quite interesting. Compared to the morning of December 24, the price has slightly risen, but it has already fallen back quite a bit since the opening on December 23. The candlestick shows a large bullish body, and the last candle still closed as a bullish candle, with the closing price higher than the opening—this pattern usually indicates resilience among the bulls. However, trading volume has been somewhat dull, with recent hours showing a significant decrease in turnover. The price and trading volume are moving downward together, indicating that the market is currently in a wait-and-see phase with low participation. How to interpret the technical indicators? The MACD is quite interesting—its histogram remains negative, but the negative values are gradually narrowing, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening and the bulls are quietly gaining strength. The KDJ indicator currently shows no clear golden cross or death cross signals, with values hovering around 25, indicating a neutral to slightly weak state. Divergence between volume and price is also evident. Trading reference levels are here: for buying, consider 121.31 and 121.
The divergence between price and volume is a bit frustrating. The bulls' resilience is there, but without volume to follow, it's hard to break through. I feel like it's better to wait for 121 for more stability.
Bitcoin's BCMI indicator continues to decline and has now fallen below the midline, indicating that the market is undergoing a structural reset. Historical data shows that the cycle bottoms in 2019 and 2023 were both near the 0.25 to 0.35 level on the BCMI. The current market may be transitioning into a true bear market rather than just a simple correction.
The pattern has formed, and the chip distribution shows that the bottom still needs to be drilled down further. The 2019 and 2023 waves both bottomed out between 0.25-0.35. Now that it has broken below the midline, it's just the beginning. Don't rush to buy the dip; wait until the risk is fully released before taking action.
An investor bought BTC two years ago at a price of $29,775. Recently, they withdrew 99.9 WBTC from the exchange and collateralized it on Aave, borrowing 2 million USDC for deployment. The current unrealized profit on the books has reached $4,232,000, demonstrating their keen investment insight.
ngl this reeks of someone who actually *gets* the game... two years deep in the trenches and suddenly goes full leverage mode? that aave collateral play screaming "i know something" energy fr fr
HashKey Capital announced that its fourth multi-strategy fund has completed its first round of financing with 250 million USD, targeting a total size of 500 million USD. The fund invests in infrastructure construction, scalability solutions, and large-scale application scenarios, adopting a flexible investment strategy that balances opportunities in both public markets and private sale.
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ForeverBuyingDips:
What can 250 million really buy the dip on? It makes me want to laugh.
On December 24th, industry insiders shared an interesting market observation: the recent rise in silver, palladium, and platinum is mainly supported by short positions squeezing, and this market trend is actually quite fragile. What really deserves attention is the subsequent actions. Once these precious metals start to pull back, gold will most likely adjust accordingly. At that time, risk assets will have their opportunity—large amounts of capital are likely to withdraw from the entire precious metals sector and flow into crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The story of capital rotation is repeatedly played out in the market. Will this time be different? It is worth observing.
nah, the squeeze narrative feels overcooked tbh. seen this "capital rotation" thesis play out what, three times this cycle? preciousmetals dump doesn't automatically mean btc moons. validator economics matter more than the macro theater honestly
Trump Media recently transferred 2,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $175 million. This move has attracted market attention and may indicate a reallocation of funds or a shift in investment strategy, reflecting the changing attitudes of large investors in the current market environment.