API Crude Oil Inventories in the U.S. for the week ending August 15

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Recently, discussions about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates in September have become increasingly heated. Although many believe that Fed Chair Powell will continue to maintain a cautious stance, the market's reaction reveals different signals. Currently, as much as 92% of market expectations lean towards a rate cut, which is certainly not unfounded speculation. From the market sentiment perspective, although retail investors show an optimistic attitude in the real estate and cryptocurrency sectors, the behavior of institutional investors is more complex. On one hand, they have reduced investments in certain areas, while on the other hand, they have quietly increased allocations to interest rate-sensitive assets. From the options market and the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, it seems that these institutions are preparing for a possible rate cut. The reasons supporting interest rate cuts mainly include the following points: First, the pressure for economic growth is increasing. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) continues to decline, financing difficulties in the real estate industry are worsening, and companies face enormous challenges in refinancing their debts. Secondly, political factors cannot be ignored. As an election year, economic stability is crucial for the Biden administration. Although the Fed emphasizes its independence, it is undeniable that there is some political pressure. Furthermore, maintaining financial stability has become an urgent priority. Although the U.S. stock market is performing strongly, credit spreads have begun to rise, and maintaining high interest rates for an extended period could have serious consequences. Additionally, concerns about inflation in the market may be exaggerated. Although "super core" inflation appears to remain high, key indicators such as rent and used car prices have begun to cool. The impact of tariffs does exist, but its transmission effect has a lag. The Fed can certainly lower interest rates once and then adjust its policy based on subsequent conditions. Although the employment data seems good, leading indicators such as the number of temporary workers and working hours have already shown signs of weakness. It is expected that Powell may continue to maintain a hawkish stance in his upcoming speech, emphasizing "data-driven policy" and "not influenced by politics," but actual actions may lean towards dovish, not completely ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in September. If the Fed sends a dovish signal, real estate, tech stocks, Bitcoin, and gold may rise. If Powell takes a tough stance but leaves some room, the market may initially fall and then rise, increasing volatility. Even an unexpected hawkish attitude could provide investors with better buying opportunities. In any case, investors should closely monitor the Fed's policy trends and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner based on market changes.