The Current Predicament of the US Economy: Escalating Tariffs, AI Bubble, and Policy Narrative DisconnectionThe U.S. economy presents a highly divided picture. On one hand, the official narrative emphasizes strong growth, near full employment, and stabilized inflation; on the other hand, residents' actual purchasing power continues to decline, manufacturing employment has seen negative growth for several months, consumer confidence is approaching historical lows, and core goods and energy prices are accelerating upward again. This phenomenon of "two realities" coexisting stems from the significantly upgraded comprehensive tariff policy since April 2025, as well as the decision-makers' systematic underestimation and redefinition of the facts of inflation. The latest data shows that the CPI in September rose to 3.0% year-on-year, a clear increase from April's 2.3%, while the October data has been postponed due to the government shutdown, further exacerbating market uncertainty.
1. Inflation Reality: Continuous upward pressure from 2.3% to 3.0%
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), after the full implementation of tariffs in April 2025, the CPI year-on-year rose from 2.3% to 9.
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