QCP: The flow of long-term ETH options has re-emerged, and the price breakthrough is not driven by excessive speculation.

BlockBeats News: On May 13, QCP issued a daily market watch that China and the United States agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs, a easing that triggered a strong rally in risk assets, and the U.S. stock market jumped 3% at the open, and the market expected a recovery in cross-border trade. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset and protectionist hedge, fell nearly 3% on the news before paring losses. The market’s return to a more traditional macro landscape – a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, weaker gold – drove selling pressure on cross-asset class volatility. The VIX index retreated to 18 and Bitcoin’s front-end volatility compressed by more than 5 volatility points. Bitcoin and Ethereum initially fell after the tariff news and are now stable at around $103,000 and $2,400, respectively. But there are signs of rotation within the market. Bitcoin’s market share has fallen below 63%, while other cryptocurrencies, notably Ethereum, are starting to outperform. Bitcoin is still locked in a tug-of-war between “digital gold” and its role as a proxy for risky assets, and this contradiction continues to blur its directional judgment. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound. Nonetheless, changes in the macro environment may affect derivatives flows. Longer investment cycles typically support back-end option demand, reduce front-end put hedging demand, and lead to a steepening of the volatility curve. In contrast, Ethereum’s funding rate remains neutral, and price breakouts are not driven by speculative overloads. A price break above $2,400 coincided with the launch of the Pectra upgrade, starting to see a resurgence of longer-term options flows, which could be an early signal that Ethereum is positioned as the market’s next major asset allocation.