Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: on-chain accumulation suggests a strong bottom formation, targeting $8,000!

Ethereum achieved a strong rebound last weekend, successfully standing above $4,000, showcasing potential strength beyond expectations. The key to this rebound is that ETH found support at $3,800, transforming the previous resistance level into a new support area, breaking the traditional expectation indicated by on-chain metrics pointing to $3,515 as the next bottom. As holders continue to transfer tokens to self-custody, indicating an accumulation and strengthening long-term HODL trend, market sentiment is turning fully bullish. Technically, the formation of a "bullish flag" pattern combined with macro catalysts has opened a path for Ethereum to challenge $8,000 before the end of the year.

On-chain data reveals a shift in sentiment: HODL trend intensifies market bullish belief

Ethereum successfully found support at $3,800 this time, marking a potential shift in market behavior. Although on-chain indicators like UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) had pointed to $3,515—the historical level for the establishment of a large number of positions—buyers chose to intervene at a higher psychological threshold.

· Accumulation signals: A report from the market analysis company Sentroa echoes this bullish sentiment, noting that while prices fell last week, the outflow of Ethereum from centralized exchanges continues.

· Long-term belief: When holders transfer their coins to self-custody wallets, it indicates that they tend to hold (HODL) and accumulate for the long term, reflecting confidence in Ethereum's long-term prospects.

This behavior of breaking through traditional buying zones suggests that market sentiment is undergoing a positive shift, with investors no longer solely relying on past accumulated prices, but instead willing to enter at higher prices.

Technical Formation Construction "Launch Pad": Breaking through $4,500 triggers a super bull market

Ethereum's firm belief is built on a convergence of bullish supports. Technical charts show that the lower boundary of a "bullish flag" pattern, which has been brewing for 2 months, is precisely aligned with a broader ascending channel at the $3,800 level, forming a strong "launch pad."

· Key support: The $3,800 level has successfully transformed from a past resistance level into a key support.

· RSI Reversal: The momentum indicator has turned bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sharply rebounding from the oversold threshold of 30, typically indicating a bottom formation, seller exhaustion, and buyer entry.

· MACD Golden Cross: Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is approaching the signal line, indicating a potential Golden Cross, which suggests that this rebound may mark the beginning of a sustained upward trend.

$4,500 is the key threshold for the "bullish flag" breakout. Once fully realized, the measured target of this pattern will point to a new historical high of $5,560 and may retest the broader ascending channel boundaries. If it can break through this channel, the Ethereum price is expected to extend further to $8,000, which means an increase of nearly 100% compared to current levels.

Macroeconomic Catalysts Overlay: Interest Rate Cuts and Staking ETH ETF Inject New Momentum

In addition to the strong technical aspects driving this bullish setup for Ethereum, there are also favorable macro factors accumulating:

· U.S. rate cut expectations: The market's expectation of a reduction in U.S. interest rates will increase liquidity, which is generally beneficial for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

· New Staking ETH ETF Effect: The new Staking Ethereum ETF is expected to attract a large influx of funds, further consolidating the demand for Ethereum and institutional attention.

These overlapping catalysts may help ETH achieve the aforementioned bullish targets before the end of the year. However, market risks still exist: if the price breaks below the key support level of $3,800, it could retest the previous accumulation area, with the next bottom support potentially falling back to $3,500, representing a decline of about 15%.

Conclusion

Ethereum's strong rebound over the weekend and return above $4,000 proves that the market has solid buying demand at this key psychological level, breaking the on-chain indicators' expectations for lower price bottoms. As the trend of long-term holders accumulating intensifies, and with the formation of the key technical pattern known as the "bullish flag", Ethereum is building a strong bullish base at $3,800. With the dual support of interest rate cut expectations and Staking ETH ETF, Ethereum's goal is no longer to return to historical highs, but to target the ambitious goal of $8,000, indicating that ETH is set for an exciting performance in the fourth quarter.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.