Get Liquidated 1.1 billion dollars! Bitcoin approaches the "death line" at 110,009 dollars, Ethereum 417 million dollars institutional buy the dip battle kicks off.

The crypto market continued its October decline on Friday, with Bitcoin and alts continuing to fall. This came after a $500 billion market capitalization evaporation over the past weekend. Ethereum led the decline, with a liquidation amount of $115 million in the last 24 hours, while the total liquidation across the network exceeded $1.1 billion. Despite the negative funding rate on mainstream CEXs indicating that short positions dominate, the call options premium in the options market and BitMine Technologies' massive $417 million buy the dip in Ethereum reveal a significant divergence in market sentiment.

Liquidation Storm and Short Dominance: Bitcoin Beware of the $110,009 Level

After a historic liquidation event over the weekend, the market lacks liquidity, and another round of decline on Thursday triggered a large number of liquidations, with extremely strong bearish sentiment in the derivatives market.

· Total liquidation exceeded 1.1 billion USD: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached 1.1 billion USD, with long positions accounting for 70%. Ethereum topped the list with a liquidation amount of 115 million USD, followed closely by Bitcoin at 80 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

· Mainstream CEX funding rates turn negative: The funding rates for perpetual contracts on CEX platforms have fallen to -2% to -3%, indicating that a large number of traders are paying fees to hold short positions, betting on further price declines.

· Key liquidation level: Coinglass liquidation heatmap shows that $110,009 is a key liquidation trigger point for Bitcoin. If the price falls below this line, it may trigger a new round of chain liquidations.

Market Sentiment Contradiction: Call Options Premium and Retail Extreme Optimism

The data from the derivatives market presents a clear contradiction: futures traders tend to take short positions, while options traders are paying premiums for bullish protection, and retail sentiment has reached an extreme bullish level.

· Call options premium surges: 1 week 25 Delta Skew skyrockets to 12.62%, indicating that traders are paying higher premiums for call options, deploying potential bullish positions.

· Retail investors' “contrarian indicator”: The percentage of true retail accounts holding long positions in Ethereum and Bitcoin has reached as high as 94%, marking the highest level among major crypto assets. Hyblock Capital points out that extreme bullish positions among retail investors are often a contrarian indicator (with a -0.86 negative correlation to price), suggesting that prices may face reversal or liquidation risks.

· Leverage health: Despite the negative funding rates, analysts believe that Ethereum's funding rate remains in a moderate positive range of 0.01% to 0.03%, well below the overheating levels of 0.1% to 0.2% seen during the 2021 bull market, suggesting that market leverage has not yet become overly saturated.

Ethereum's Technical Aspects and Institutions' Strong Belief

Ethereum price continues to consolidate below $4000, with technical indicators showing a mixed bag, but the ongoing large purchases by institutions provide long-term confidence.

· Multiple Moving Average Tug-of-War: The price of Ethereum is consolidating between the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between short-term and long-term market trends.

· Bearish MACD signal: Technical analysis shows that a bearish MACD crossover is forming on the Ethereum weekly chart, similar to previous correction signals that led to falls of 43% and 61%. If this crossover is confirmed, bearish momentum may intensify.

· $9.3 billion institutional reserves: BitMine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Tom Lee, made two substantial purchases on Thursday and last weekend, increasing its holdings by over 300,000 ETH, with a total value of nearly $9.3 billion. The company remains firmly confident in the long-term potential of Ethereum and reiterated its $10,000 year-end target.

Macroeconomic Market Resonance: Government Bonds, Gold, and Banking Credit Crisis

The fall of the crypto market is not an isolated event, but rather aligns with broader trends in the global financial markets, primarily driven by macro uncertainty.

· US stocks pulled back across the board: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite Index all fell by about 0.5% to 0.6% on Thursday.

· Bank credit issues: Regional banks such as Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance have disclosed loan problems, raising concerns about the credit quality of the banking industry.

· Risk aversion sentiment is rising: Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4%, and gold prices rising to over 4300 USD per ounce, setting a new record. In addition, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, and the escalating tensions in U.S.-China trade have also increased market uncertainty.

Conclusion

Bitcoin and altcoins are under a dual impact of macro uncertainty and the aftershocks of weekend liquidations, resulting in highly fragile market sentiment. The short positions in the futures market, combined with the call options premium in the options market and the extreme optimism among retail investors, have created a market structure filled with divergence and potential volatility. Although Ethereum is facing bearish signals and short-term pressure on the technical front, the massive buy the dip actions from institutions provide strong confidence support for its long-term trend. Traders should closely monitor the key liquidation point at 110009 dollars and remain wary of the reverse impact that extreme retail sentiment may bring.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.