Dogecoin Faces ‘Do-Or-Die’ Moment Ahead of October 23, Analyst Says

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Dogecoin’s next inflection could arrive as soon as October 22–23, according to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, who argues that the memecoin’s multi-month rising channel will either confirm with a higher low in the $0.16–$0.18 region or give way to another full “round trip” into year-end.

In an October 16 video Analysis, he frames the coming week as a binary checkpoint: “This next week is going to be your do or die… if this breaks down, it’s over. GG. If it holds, then we could say, ‘All right, rally is coming and maybe we’ll get another chance.’”

Analysis## Why October 23 Could Be Crucial For Dogecoin

The case rests on a recurring confluence he has been tracking for months: Dogecoin tagging a channel support trendline while the daily RSI presses into oversold, followed by improvement in his macro read on M2 turning bullish into month-end.

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“Every time we come to the trend line the RSI hits oversold,” he said, pointing to prior tests in March–April and June. “We just hit the trend line again in October… and the M2 turns bullish at the end of October.” He stops short of calling a “bull run,” describing the next upside attempt as a “bullish push” contingent on holding that support into October 23.

VisionPulsed places an unusual emphasis on timing. He sees confirmation if Dogecoin establishes a higher low before October 22–23, with the precise price print less important than preserving the structure. “If it ends up being a higher low, which could technically be either 18 cents or 16 cents… it doesn’t matter. We would be holding the trend line,” he said. A failure to do so would, in his view, push any durable reversal beyond the horizon: “If we end up crashing into November anyway, then we’re not going up. It’s that simple. There’s no more time left.”

Seasonality and sentiment are critical to his diagnosis. October, he insists, has been a persistent headwind for Dogecoin and broader risk, while November often marks the inflection. “October is not really that bullish… the S&P 500 is bearish in October,” he noted. “November is actually historically when the market does turn bullish.”

The week-to-week whipsaw through mid-year underscores the point, he argues: “In June, it was over and then by July we’re back. Then in August, it was over. And then in September we were back. In October it’s over. And November we’re probably back.”

Still, the Analysis is framed against a candid acknowledgement of Dogecoin’s stalled cycle. “We’ve been making Dogecoin videos for almost two… it’s been two years now and the price has done nothing,” he said. “Three years ago Dogecoin was 16 cents and now it’s 18 cents… the price of Dogecoin has not moved in almost three years.”

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The stagnation is why he views this fourth year of the four-year cycle as make-or-break. If the channel fails or, conversely, if the market rallies but cannot break out by December, he expects another “round trip”: “If we make it to December and we still didn’t get out of the channel, then it’s going to be bearish again and we’re going to round trip again.”

Tactically, he anticipates one more test of support into the weekend before any reversal attempt. “We’re probably going to back test it this weekend. We’re probably going to see another sell-off,” he said. “If we can form a higher low, then that would confirm that the bottom is in and we could see a reversal higher.”

He pins the key checkpoint to October 23 with unusual clarity—“X marks the spot”—and maintains that until then “we’re bearish.” The upside roadmap, if support holds, would be a grind back to the top of the channel by late November, consistent with prior month-to-month recoveries: “I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of November, we’re back at the top of the channel.”

He concluded: “It doesn’t really take that long for Dogecoin to really recover,” stressing the coin’s capacity for sharp mean-reversions once structure is respected. “But we have to hold the bottom of the channel first before we can start talking about a reversal point.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.183.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com