In 2025, why will digital gold Bitcoin lose to real gold?

Young Bitcoin still has a long way to go, and when the world is in chaos, gold has become the safe-haven asset of choice for central banks. (Summary: Bitcoin fell below 108,000 magnesium, but gold rose above a new high of $4,300, what happened to the safe-haven market? (Background added: Gold breaks an all-time high of $4200!) Silver also broke records, safe-haven assets ran endlessly? Remember the end of 2024, when everyone was writing asset forecasts for 2025. Investors are staring at S&P and Big A, while crypto people are betting on Bitcoin. But if someone had told you then that the brightest performing asset in 2025 wasn't bitcoin or stocks, but the “old” gold that Gen Z disliked, you'd be joking. But the reality is so magical. Over the past 5 years, Bitcoin has beaten gold nearly 10 times with an increase of more than 1,000%, repeatedly topping the top of the year's strongest asset. However, in 2025, the playbook is completely reversed: gold has risen by more than 50% since January, while bitcoin has risen by only 15%. The aunt who bought gold early laughed, and the elite traders of the crypto industry fell silent. What's even weirder is that gold and bitcoin seem to enter a parallel world: gold goes up, bitcoin falls; Bitcoin fell, gold rose. On October 21, gold suffered a heavy setback, falling 5% in a single day, and bitcoin changed its decline and began to rise… Why is Bitcoin, known as digital gold, riveted from physical gold? Who is the craziest gold buyer in troubled times 2025? Not retail investors, not institutions, central banks around the world. The data doesn't lie: global central bank net gold purchases reached 1,045 tonnes in 2024, breaking 1,000 tonnes for the third year in a row. According to Q2 2025 data released by the World Gold Council, Poland increased its holdings by 18.66 tons, Kazakhstan followed closely with an increase of 15.65 tons, and the People's Bank of China steadily increased its holdings by 6.22 tons… Why are developing countries increasing their holdings of gold? Looking at the ratio of central banks to gold reserves, developed countries and developing countries are completely two worlds: 77.85% of the US asset reserves are gold, with a position of 8133 tons, ahead of second-place Germany with 3350 tons, followed by Italy and France with 2452 tons and 2437 tons of gold, respectively. China's central bank gold reserves account for only 6.7% of total asset reserves, but the absolute amount has reached 2299t and continues to increase. This comparison is obvious, emerging market countries still have a lot of room to increase their gold holdings, economies like China, gold reserves account for less than 7%, while developed countries in Europe and the United States are generally 70%+. It's like a “make-up class”, the bigger the gap, the stronger the motivation to catch up. Exaggeratedly, central bank purchases soared directly to 20% of aggregate demand from less than 10% in the 2000s, becoming an important support for gold prices. Why are central banks suddenly so bullish on gold? The answer is simple: the world is chaotic and the dollar is no longer trustworthy. Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East situation, Sino-US trade friction… The chaos in the global village became the Warring States period. For a long time, the US dollar has been the core foreign exchange reserve of central banks, but also plays a safe-haven function, but now the United States is overwhelmed, with 36 trillion US dollars of debt, a ratio of 124% to GDP, and the Trump administration is uncertain, making enemies externally and torn internally… Especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, when the United States can freeze the foreign exchange reserves of other countries at will, countries realize that only the gold in their own safes is the real wealth that belongs to them. Although gold does not bear interest, at least it will not suddenly “disappear” because of the policies of a certain country. Whether for individuals and countries, gold is a risk hedge, the more chaotic the world, the more gold is chased, but when the news that “the Russian-Ukrainian war may end”, gold fell is reasonable. Digital gold or digital Tesla? Perhaps the most embarrassing asset in 2025 is Bitcoin, whose long-term narrative is “digital gold” only to live as a “digital Tesla.” According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is now as high as 0.5, and even reached 0.8 at the beginning of the year. And the correlation with gold? Only a pitiful 0.2, which was even zero at one point at the beginning of the year. Translated into human terms: Bitcoin is now tied to technology stocks, Nasdaq goes up and it goes up, and Nasdaq goes down and it falls. Everything has cause and effect. Under the impetus of the Trump administration, the attitude of the United States towards bitcoin has changed from “illegal cult” to “welcome to join”. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 marks the official inclusion of Bitcoin in the US dollar system. This would have been a good thing, proving Bitcoin's legal status. But the problem is that when you're part of the system, it's hard to fight the system. Bitcoin's original charm lay in its rebellious spirit, not dependent on any government and controlled by any central bank. But now what? Wall Street giants like BlackRock have become the biggest buyers in the market, and the rise and fall of bitcoin depends on the face of the Fed and Trump, so much so that now cryptocurrency traders have to stay up late listening to Ball and Trump, turning themselves into an expert in dollar macro analysis. As far as consensus is concerned, Bitcoin is still in the cognitive stage of “what is this” in many parts of the world, and gold is already “my grandma's grandma also likes it”. Chinese aunts' gold bracelets and gold necklaces probably have more holders than all the bitcoin HODLers in the world. Compared to gold, young Bitcoin still has a long way to go. Left-handed gold, right-handed bitcoin Many people like to choose between gold and Bitcoin, but smart investors know it's a fill-in-the-blank question. Although central banks around the world are buying gold like crazy, and the price of gold has soared, this process cannot continue indefinitely. When the price of gold is high to a certain extent, problems such as the storage, transportation and delivery of physical gold will arise, and then the advantages of Bitcoin will be highlighted at this time. Imagine a specific scenario where war breaks out in a country and the rich find that gold is too heavy and conspicuous to transfer wealth quickly. At this time, bitcoins in a hardware wallet became the best choice, and this has already happened once in Russia. Simply put, gold is a “bulky store of value” and Bitcoin is a “light store of value.” If, when the price of gold reaches a very terrifying high, funds need to find alternatives of similar nature but cheaper, in this case, bitcoin has the opportunity to gradually get rid of the gravitational pull of the dollar and Trump, the overflow of funds to obtain gold, and re-approach “digital gold”. To sum up, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold should not be understood as who replaces whom, but rather as inheritance and evolution. Gold is the memory of wealth of human civilization, and Bitcoin is the imagination of wealth in the digital age. 70-year-old Aunt Li buys gold jewelry, 25-year-old programmer Li Xiaoming hoards Bitcoin, and everyone has a bright future. Related reports Former president of PayPal: It is only a “matter of time” that Bitcoin breaks through a million dollars, and the market value can be equal to gold Why do Gen Z young people not buy gold, preferring to embrace the highly volatile Bitcoin? Gold broke through a new high of $3,600 “experts shout that it will rise”, the US unemployment rate collapsed, interest rate cuts and hedging are good for Bitcoin? 〈In 2025, why did digital gold Bitcoin lose to real gold? 〉This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain…