Bitcoin bull run will only come in 2026! Bitwise: 2025 not pumping is the biggest bullish factor.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated that the failure of the crypto assets market to see a substantial pump by the end of 2025 will only create greater upward potential for 2026. He believes that the fundamentals are very strong, with institutional investment, regulatory progress, and stablecoins being too powerful to be suppressed. Additionally, the Uniswap fee conversion proposal is expected to reignite interest in Decentralized Finance, making 2026 a promising year.

2025 will not pump but is the biggest guarantee for the bull market in 2026

(Left is Matt Hougan, Source: Youtube)

When asked if he would revise his prediction about whether the Crypto Assets market would thrive in 2026, Hougan stated, “I am actually more confident in my previous prediction. The biggest risk is if we surge all the way up until the end of 2025 and then experience a pullback.” This counterintuitive logic has profound implications in technical analysis and market psychology.

The biggest risk in the history of the Bitcoin bull market is often not that it rises too slowly, but that it rises too quickly and abruptly. The crazy surges at the end of 2017 and the end of 2021 both triggered severe bear market corrections shortly thereafter. Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2017, and subsequently fell to $3,000 by the end of 2018, a decline of 85%. After hitting $69,000 in November 2021, it dropped to $16,000 by the end of 2022, a decline of 77%. These brutal corrections not only wiped out retail investors' wealth but also severely damaged market confidence, taking years to recover.

The cryptocurrency market rebound at the end of 2025 aligns with the four-year cycle theory, which means that 2026 will mark the beginning of a bear market, similar to 2022 and 2018. However, due to Bitcoin's rapid correction after hitting a high of $125,100 in October 2025 and subsequently consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000, the market avoided overheating and a subsequent crash. This moderate consolidation provides a healthier foundation for sustained growth in 2026.

The logic of Hougan is that if there is a crazy surge by the end of 2025, such as Bitcoin skyrocketing to $150,000 or even $200,000, the market sentiment will reach a state of extreme greed, leverage will rise, and retail investors will frantically chase the highs. This state is extremely fragile, and any negative catalyst could trigger a chain liquidation and panic selling. In contrast, if Bitcoin maintains a relatively moderate price by the end of 2025, market sentiment remains rational, and leverage stays at a healthy level, the surge in 2026 will be more solid and lasting.

“I think the fundamentals are very solid,” Hougan said. “I believe that the early factors, such as institutional investment, regulatory progress, stablecoins, tokenization, and so on, are too strong to be suppressed. So I think 2026 will be a good year.” This emphasis on fundamentals shows that Hougan is not making predictions based on technical analysis or market sentiment, but rather on deep insights into long-term structural factors.

Four Fundamental Pillars Supporting Bitcoin Bull Market

Hougan believes that the fundamentals of the Bitcoin bull market are very robust, mainly reflected in four aspects. The first is the continuous inflow of institutional investment. Since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the cumulative net inflow has exceeded 50 billion USD. BlackRock's IBIT asset scale is close to 100 billion USD, making it one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. This institutional-level capital inflow provides stable and continuous buying support for Bitcoin.

The second is the legal certainty brought about by regulatory progress. After the Trump administration took office, the SEC withdrew lawsuits against several companies, including Ripple and Consensys, the Senate is advancing the market structure bill, and the SEC, led by Atkins, has committed to establishing a token classification law. These regulatory developments have eliminated the legal uncertainties that have long plagued the crypto industry, clearing the way for institutional entry on a large scale.

The third is the explosive growth of stablecoins. Tether's USDT market cap has surpassed 183 billion USD, and Circle's USDC continues to grow. Stablecoins are not only a medium of exchange, but more importantly, they provide a stable connection between the crypto ecosystem and the fiat world. As the application of stablecoins expands in cross-border payments, corporate finance, and everyday consumption, they bring practical demand and capital inflows to the entire crypto market.

The fourth is the accelerated development of tokenization. Traditional assets such as real estate, bonds, equities, and commodities are being rapidly tokenized, with blockchain becoming the infrastructure for trading and settling these assets. BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has surpassed $1 billion, demonstrating strong institutional demand for tokenized assets. This trend provides blockchain with practical application scenarios beyond speculation, significantly enhancing long-term value support.

Four Fundamental Pillars of the Bitcoin Bull Market

Institutional Investment: Spot ETF cumulative inflow exceeds 50 billion USD, BlackRock IBIT assets nearly 100 billion USD.

Regulatory Progress: SEC drops lawsuit, market structure bill advances, token classification law is about to be introduced.

Stablecoin Growth: USDT market capitalization at 183 billion USD, with expanding applications in payments and finance.

Asset Tokenization: BlackRock's BUIDL Fund surpasses $1 billion, accelerating traditional assets on-chain.

Hougan stated that people’s trading of Bitcoin depreciation, stablecoins, and tokenization will continue to accelerate, while believing that the fee conversion proposal put forward by Uniswap on Monday will reignite interest in decentralized finance agreements over the next year. Uniswap's UNIfication proposal initiated protocol fees and burned 842 million USD worth of UNI tokens. This transformation from pure governance tokens to economic tokens with value capture mechanisms may trigger a collective imitation of DeFi agreements.

encryption native retail sluggish TradFi retail takes over

Speaking about the current market correction, Hougan attributes it to “crypto assets native retail,” believing that many early investors have recently compressed the upward space through massive sell-offs. Hougan stated that those who expected a repeat of the bull market cycle from 2020 to 2021 have faced a harsh reality check.

“The sentiment in the native retail market for Crypto Assets is low, and the FTX incident has dealt them a heavy blow, while the meme coin crash has also caused significant losses. The delay in the arrival of the altcoin market has made things even worse. The liquidation event on October 10 has further resulted in substantial losses, and I believe they will choose to wait and see this time.” This observation reveals that the structure of participants in the current Bitcoin bull market is undergoing fundamental changes.

Crypto native retail refers to those old investors who entered the market in 2017 or earlier. They have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, have a profound understanding of market rules, but have also suffered painful losses. The collapse of FTX caused them heavy losses, and many have not been able to fully recover the assets stored on that exchange to this day. The collapse of meme coins has also resulted in huge losses, with many Dogecoin and Shiba Inu coin buyers in 2021 losing over 90% of their principal in the subsequent crash.

The liquidation event on October 10 wiped out about $19 billion in leveraged positions, with many high-leverage traders being liquidated in a short period. This chain reaction has made the crypto native retail group extremely cautious, as they no longer chase pumps as aggressively as before, but instead tend to take profits during rebounds. While this behavior is rational, it also suppresses the market's upward momentum.

On the other hand, according to Hougan, “TradFi retail” is thriving. He pointed out that over the past two years, the influx of funds into spot Crypto Assets exchange-traded funds has increased. “Traditional retailers like my uncle are transforming into the Crypto Assets space, and this part of retail is still vibrant,” said Hougan. These newcomers typically engage with Crypto Assets through ETFs or brokerage accounts, and they are unaware of the past crash history, holding a more straightforward long-term investment mindset towards the market.

The shift in the structure of participants has a profound impact on the nature of the Bitcoin bull market. The funds from TradFi retail are usually more stable and long-term, unlike the frequent trading and chasing of gains and losses seen in crypto-native retail. They hold Bitcoin through ETFs, use less leverage, and do not participate in meme coin speculation. This more mature and rational investment behavior will make future Bitcoin bull markets more robust, potentially reducing volatility while enhancing sustainability.

The Extreme Goals of Hayes and Lee vs. Reality

Bitcoin still has the potential to reach new highs before the end of the year, and Hougan remains optimistic that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana could reach new highs by 2026. However, the predictions of legendary trader Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee seem overly optimistic.

A few months ago, the two predicted that Bitcoin and Ethereum could reach $250,000 and $15,000 respectively by the end of the year. Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,762, and Ethereum is trading at $3,416, which means they need to pump 145% and 340% respectively to reach these ambitious targets. Achieving such a surge in less than two months is almost an impossible task.

Although Hayes and Lee's predictions are radical, they reflect their confidence in the long-term fundamentals. A Bitcoin price of $250,000 implies a market capitalization of about $5 trillion, which is roughly half of the global gold market value. If Bitcoin truly becomes a globally recognized store of value and reserve asset, this valuation could logically hold. However, achieving this goal requires not only time but also the simultaneous emergence of multiple significant catalysts.

Hougan's relatively conservative prediction may be closer to reality. He believes that 2026 will be a good year, but has not provided specific price targets. This cautious attitude shows that professional institutional investors have a more mature understanding of the market and are not swayed by extreme predictions. For retail investors, referencing the conservative predictions of professional institutions is often wiser than chasing the extreme targets set by influencers.