CITIC Securities: It is recommended to focus on whether the United States will lift trade sanctions against Russia.

On February 14, Jinshi Data reported that Citic Securities research report stated that in terms of the ceasefire prospects, we judge that the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations will accelerate marginally, but may not necessarily achieve a quick cessation of hostilities. The subsequent game focus may lie in what form the United States will provide security guarantees to Ukraine to achieve the so-called permanent peace. Considering that Russia has the overall advantage on the battlefield, Ukraine lacks negotiation chips, and Trump’s interest in continuous military assistance to Ukraine is mediocre, it is expected that it will take some time for all parties to reach a ceasefire protocol. In terms of market impact, in the short term, the accelerated progress of ceasefire negotiations may dampen market risk aversion sentiment towards geopolitical aspects; in the medium to long term, it is recommended to focus on whether the United States will lift trade sanctions against Russia. If Russian goods return to the international market, it may have a supply impact on certain energy and metal commodity prices.