JPMorgan believes that the peaceful protocol in Ukraine will mildly boost Middle Eastern currencies

Jinshi data, February 20th, Morgan Stanley stated that if a ceasefire or peaceful protocol is reached between Ukraine and Russia, the currency of neighboring emerging economies will be a “net Favourable Information.” However, a significant portion of this Favourable Information may have already been digested. Until the details of the peaceful protocol become clearer, the bank will maintain a neutral or “market-weighted” position on Ukraine’s sovereign bonds. Even though a ceasefire seems to be getting closer, the possibility of reaching a sustainable and acceptable peaceful protocol for all parties remains uncertain. The bank estimates that the sovereign debt market is close to a 70% probability of reaching a lasting peaceful protocol. In the most optimistic scenario, Ukrainian bonds may be most positively affected, while the upside space for its so-called GDP warrants is “limited.”