Metals & Macro Liquidity

美國宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽以應對美伊和平談判破裂，引發原油價格大幅上漲，油價重回100美元以上，美股期貨下跌。金價和加密貨幣也隨之下滑，比特幣回落至70K上方，整體市值降至2.41兆美元。

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XAGUSD (Silver) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News message, A whale identified as "0x9e8" closed the majority of its $SILVER long position with 20x leverage and opened a 95,577 $CL long position with 20x leverage valued at $9 million over the past 5 hours. This trading activity occurred as the U.S.-Iran negotiations did not reach success.

2024年4月的比特幣減半使其年通膨率降至0.85%，首次低於黃金的1.5-2%。比特幣的稀缺性源於程式碼規定，供應將逐漸減少，預計在2028年再度減半。此次減半周期見證了機構投資者的參與，強化了比特幣作為數位黃金的地位。

Central banks are now holding more gold reserves than valuation-adjusted US dollar reserves for the first time, with a $140 billion gap favoring gold. This shift reflects growing geopolitical concerns and the unreliability of dollar reserves, as central banks increasingly prefer gold amidst uncertainty.

某研究机构数据显示，锚定传统资产的加密永续合约正逐渐成为“提前定价华尔街”的工具，其周末价格变动对周一传统市场的预测准确率高达89%。这类合约的交易量和周末活跃度显著提升，已成为判断传统市场短期走势的重要参考。

美国银行研报指出，自1970年代以来，全球经济对石油的依赖减少，现需石油量仅为当时的三分之一，经济韧性增强。此外，华泰证券分析黄金未能展现避险特性，受地缘冲击影响，经历回撤后反弹。

Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg strategist, argues that Bitcoin ETFs may not drive long-term growth for Bitcoin, which has underperformed compared to gold. Despite recent gains, Bitcoin's performance seems capped, suggesting a potential peak in crypto enthusiasm.

4月10日，贵金属市场强劲，黄金上涨至4773.60美元/盎司，白银上涨至76.364美元/盎司。加密市场波动率回落，外汇市场美元兑人民币下跌，全球股指上涨。大宗商品方面，WTI原油上涨，布伦特原油下跌。Gate平台支持多种金融资产交易。

澳新银行和高盛等投行预测，黄金长期可能反弹，主要受央行需求、地缘政治不确定性和美联储降息预期的影响。澳新银行预计年底金价达5800美元，高盛维持5400美元预期，认为央行购金将是支撑因素。

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XPTUSD (Platinum) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

4月10日，黄金和白银价格小幅下跌，分别报4758.37美元/盎司和75.165美元/盎司。比特币波动率指数（BVIX）降至44.36，外汇市场上美元对离岸人民币和日元有所上涨。欧洲主要股指普遍下跌，而WTI和布伦特原油小幅上涨。Gate平台支持交易多种金融市场产品。

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XAGUSD (Silver) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News消息，4月9日，据Gate数据，现货黄金短线走强14美元，突破4780美元/盎司，日内涨幅1.28%。

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XPDUSD (Palladium - Cash) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News 消息，4 月 9 日，Tether Gold（XAUt）的全链部署版本 XAUt0 现已在 Conflux 上线，引入可在支持的链之间无缝转移的代币化黄金。此前 USDT0 已在 Conflux 上线，提供统一美元流动性。

Gate News 消息，4 月 9 日，波兰央行行长格拉平斯基表示，波兰央行将继续购买黄金。格拉平斯基重申了将黄金储备增至 700 吨的目标，波兰央行目前持有 580 吨黄金。

美伊停火后比特币与黄金同步冲高回落，从地缘政治博弈视角拆解价格变动的深层逻辑与后续走向。