Mysterious Trader Accurately Predicts Election Results, Wins Huge Profits

A mysterious trader is expected to reap nearly $50 million in massive profits by making a series of bold bets related to the U.S. presidential election on the prediction market. This trader, known as the "Trump Whale," not only bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election but also believes that Trump will win the popular vote, a view that contradicts the expectations of many political observers.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" is also betting that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Théo is placing bets on a certain crypto prediction platform using four anonymous accounts. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with the media since mid-October.

Théo stated that his bet is essentially a challenge to the accuracy of the polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. Since the summer of this year, he has begun using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polling data. He believes that the polls exaggerate Vice President Kamala Harris's approval ratings. Unlike many armchair political commentators, Théo has put his analysis into practice, wagering over $30 million on Trump's victory.

As the election results are gradually revealed, Théo's predictions are being validated. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates a high possibility of him winning the popular vote. Théo predicted before the election that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris, and winning six out of seven battleground states.

As of Wednesday afternoon after the election, analysts predict that Trump will win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, although millions of ballots are yet to be counted in some states. The betting markets also generally believe that Trump's victory in the popular vote is a done deal.

Théo has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media. He believes that these polls are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce anomalous results that favor Harris. He stated that in France, the credibility of opinion polls is higher, and polling organizations pay more attention to the accuracy of results.

To support his point, Théo shared a data table compiled from the average of multiple opinion polls. The table shows that Trump performed excellently in the swing state polls in 2020. Given that the polling results for the swing states in 2024 are very close, Théo inferred that if Trump can perform similarly well, he will easily take the lead.

Théo believes that the polls fail to accurately capture the "shy Trump voter effect." He thinks that either Trump supporters are unwilling to express their true preferences to polling agencies, or they simply do not participate in the polls.

To address this issue, Théo suggested using the "neighboring residents' opinion survey" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. The idea behind this method is that people may be reluctant to directly disclose their political preferences, but when guessing their neighbors' voting intentions, they will indirectly express their true thoughts.

Théo cited several opinion polls that used both the neighbor voting method and traditional methods. These polls showed that when asking about neighbors' voting intentions, Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than when directly asking respondents about their own intentions. For Théo, this proved that polling agencies once again underestimated Trump's actual support rate.

While celebrating his successful prediction, Théo revealed that he had commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose the name of the agency. He stated that the survey results were "shocking and favorable to Trump," but due to a confidentiality agreement, he could not share specific data.

Théo emphasized that American polling organizations should adopt neighborhood survey methods in the future to avoid major errors again. He believes that if the latest polls can accurately measure the neighborhood effect, the direction of public opinion will be clearer.