Ethereum Price Breakthrough and Market Trend Analysis

On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through $2,827, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this surge lies a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions. In this seemingly coincidental market movement, the trading patterns of a mysterious investor have become an important clue for interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, a certain anonymous address completed two precise operations within 44 days:

• April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, totaling $54.9 million;
• May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, making a profit of $23.73 million, with a return of 43%;
• June 10: Sold 30,000 ETH again for $82.76 million, locking in a profit of $7.3 million, with total profits amounting to $31 million.

Such operations are not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest (OI) has surpassed $40 billion for the first time, and the market leverage ratio is nearing a critical point. The current market presents a delicate balance: around $2,600, there is a gathering risk of $2 billion long liquidation, while above $2,900, there lurks a $1.8 billion short liquidation risk. This standoff between longs and shorts could trigger a breakout and a chain reaction in either direction.

As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. The number of independent active addresses grew by 70% in the second quarter, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, a certain Layer 2 network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses), far exceeding Ethereum's mainnet at 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This "satellite chain driving the mainnet" model differs from the development logic of the early decentralized finance wave.

Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a total locked value (TVL) of $66 billion, its core revenue model is facing challenges:

• Transaction fees significantly decreased: The network fees in the past 30 days were only $43.3 million, down 90% compared to earlier.
• Staking yields are sluggish: while the technical upgrades reduce Layer 2 costs, the annualized yield for stakers is only 3.12%;
• Regulatory pressure: Scrutiny of ETH staking has led to a net outflow of $369 million in related ETFs for 8 consecutive days.

These contradictions are reflected in on-chain data: the proportion of addresses holding ETH for the long term (over 1 year) has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has increased by 47%. Technical upgrades have not effectively translated into profits for holders, and the flourishing ecosystem may instead dilute value.

The derivatives market is also rife with hidden currents. The open interest in ETH futures has surpassed $40 billion for the first time, indicating that market volatility may increase. Clearing data shows:

• There is a $2 billion long liquidation risk in the $2,600-$2,665 range;
• Short positions worth $1.8 billion face risks above $2,900;
• A certain exchange has a 9% share of Ethereum futures open contracts, indicating that traditional capital remains cautious.

Technical analysis shows:

• The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level in recent times, indicating a potential breakout;
• The weekly indicators show contradictory signals. Although the price remains above the moving average, the momentum indicators indicate insufficient upward momentum;
• $2,800 will become the bullish-bearish dividing line, a breakout could open up the space of $3,200-$3,500, otherwise it may pull back to $2,500.

On a macro level, changes in US-Russia relations and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy create a dual impact. The market's expectation for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 has reached 79%. If the actual situation deviates, the cryptocurrency market may be impacted. A certain bank also warned that if the concept of Real World Assets (RWA) fails to materialize in the third quarter, Ether may face a significant risk of market capitalization loss.

Ethereum is facing a critical moment:

• Consider increasing the staking limit for validator nodes to 2048 ETH through proposals, and optimizing the exit mechanism to alleviate liquidity pressure;
• Discuss the requirement for Layer2 networks to allocate part of the transaction fees to the main chain, addressing the issue of "prosperous ecosystem, declining main chain revenue";
• Progress in regulation, such as a ruling on a certain ETF passing in the third quarter, could lead to a short-term increase of 15-20%.

Some analysis suggests that after breaking through $2,800, Ethereum may start a new round of increases to $5,232. However, caution is needed, as the current market is largely driven by leverage, and the $1.8 billion short position may become fuel for the rise, but ultimately the market will verify who can truly grasp the trend and who may face risks.